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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would rather weak la nina, but cold neutral is fine...not a huge deal.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. I'm not sure that we have ever had two consecutive la nina events both pull that BLSW crap that the last one did. I will certainly bet against a repeat next year with a high degree of confidence.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Came across an interesting article examining the relationship between QBO and MJO. Postulates that since 1980, an easterly QBO has enhanced the MJO and made the waves last longer, which augments model skill during the winter. The opposite is the case in westerly years....ie, shorter and more incoherent MJO waves lead to poorer model performance. The impact on guidance at least makes sense to me. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00173-9
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gun-to-head: Weak la Nina. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/07/la-nina-watch-for-boreal-winter-2021.html
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This will have to be close to the rainiest July on record...wow.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Your" problem...not mine. February was good IMBY.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its all that has happened in 5 months.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    No-brainer.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like last winter...right on the edge up here.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, like I said...its weather and its a weather forum. Haha Beats temp talk.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I just see the light at the end of the ennui by August.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its been a rainy summer in contrast to last year.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be all in on a bonafide tropical event impacting the area, but this is the same crap that we always get....at least give me a Bob or Gloria deal. Pretty good rule of thumb that impact will be tempered when you have a minimal tropical system traversing land for hundreds of miles before veering across the southern half of the region.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Worthwhile tropical activity and the onset of seasonal transition/winter outlook prep.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I guess it beats debating 87 vs 83, but nothing I'll waste time and energy blogging about.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it will be windy for the usual spots, but NBD. The big amount of water in a short duration over the interior will be the biggest issue.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wake me up when July ends.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, but it was still technically an el nino.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, we had two consecutive el nino events ending the season before last.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its hard enough to accurately predict the mean index states/intensities over the course of a given DM period, but also nailing the timing/evolution and how those nuances impact sensible weather, like snowfall....good luck lol.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not explicitly, but I stated that the evolution with respect to the early season PNA was actually more redolent of el nino...this implies that it is simply due to a greater degree of variance with respect to more modest ENSO events, as Steve said.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually had the PNA evolution backwards last season...I thought it would begin more hostile, and get better over the course of the season. However, I nailed it in the aggregate.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Smoking gun was the gradient that ensued between the favorable polar fields and the hostile Pacific...the position of that over the majority of the season determined the haves and have nots in terms of snowfall. SW was best because they sheared as the approached NE due to the mean position of the gradient over the course of the season.
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