40/70 Benchmark

Depends how strong....MEI of 1.2 is not a huge deal. I would rather a mod east based event, than a weak west-based. Still some stuff to workout.....regardless, I'm not calling for 1995-1996 neg NAO, so don't get me wrong. Just not last year.

I think the current structure of la nina favors that.

I have to be honest. I am more optimistic than I was a month ago. Only negative is the stronger than expected la nina, but given Tip's bedtime, expanding-Hadley cell erotica, that may not be such a bad thing- SO FAR....la nina has been more deliberate with westward expansion than I had thought.

Its interesting that this hasn't transitioned as quickly west as I had thought.....good sign for the eastern US IMO.

Its tough to predict something as bad as last year.

I do when I feel it prudent to do so. This year, I do not. I will say that the streak of not having any month from DM average negative NAO is going to end very soon.

Nina still looks pretty east-based.

I must be missing something because those bold numbers do not seem that close to me.

Looks like some west-based NAO love in that forecast. 2010-11 like.

Nah....as long as I don't have a client scheduled, we ween.

GFS .8", Euro 1.8"...once an 1" of liquid between globals...

Lots of down time at the new job....pretty well finished with the composite framework of my winter outlook. Just gotta do the narrative and post the remained of the supplementary addendums, which explain the indexes, etc.

Wow...EURO is like 1.8" here.

Well, NOAA updates the MEI. As for the underlined....I agree that it was not as well coupled as 1997. I added to my response too late. I don't agree that the atmosphere around it was not responding...less than you would expect based upon the intensity, sure.

Agreed.....Ordinarily, modoki el nino events favor a neg NAO and AO, but obviously there were more pervasive global factors at play....whether it be the IOD, etc....

Ahhh....a well coupled ENSO event is absolutely one of the factors that modulates the Hadley cell-Yup. That last uber warm ENSO event in 2015 was very well coupled, which is why that winter behaved as most intense el nino events do and it was very mild. That is not a coincidence....it absolutely has an impact on the placement of Hadley and Ferrel cells. The MEI values further evince that the 2015 event was very well coupled: 2015 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 1 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2016 1.9 1.8 1.3 I do agree that it was LESS coupled than the 1997 event, which was of comparable ONI strength....if you want to argue that that is due to the Hadley cell expansion, then I am all ears....but I think that you get carried away with this. This season's cool ENSO event is also coupled....with the AS reading just released now down to -1.2.

That is wrong IMO....assuming the warm ENSO event is coupled, the placement of the anomalies does dictate forcing and Hadley cell arrangement. I understand that perhaps the past couple were negated by the expanding Hadley cell....I am speaking of the ENSO events that do couple. The MEI does imply that the past two were poorly coupled, but so were 2004 and 2014.

Its also possible that the past two winters under performed expectations for other reasons, as other modoki seasons have in the past.

"StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)".

I used it in one of my outlooks. l'll grab it.

I couldn't care less at that range.

The 1815 redux must have waned last night bc the usual suspects were quiet on FB..

I know....toss one out every now and then for kicks if its extreme...but please keep the day 15 rea out of this thread.

The subsurface...I will have to dig up Chuck's research when I get a chance, but something along the lines of the summer subsurface resurfacing in winter. I think that is the origin of the correlation.

I'm surprised that this comment did not garner more attention. I think it is very significant. While I believe that the DM NAO will once again average positive, I agree that it should evolve differently from some of the recent hostility in that region.