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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be modestly surprised if this la nina registered as an official moderate event per ONI, and would be stunned if it ended up strong...I guess we will see.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel as though there has been a pretty consistent consensus.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, modest warm anomalies aren't too problematic until you get south of NYC...but a furnace blows for everyone to varying degrees.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around. I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that is far fetched.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Soon to be hurricane DELTA....poised to explode before threatening NO as a minimal to moderate cane. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/delta-poised-to-become-hurricane-and.html
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, not much really to be gleaned from that...nothing unexpected.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    AEMATT
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column-
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but not to the tune of 140" in central NH, and 45" in Boston.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jury is still out with respect to the importance of QBO in my mind....I go both ways on that..a little like the rev's sexuality.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage. I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2007 is an extremely good ENSO analog with respect to structure. Yes, ONI weaker, but MEI is dead-nuts on... like I said, the QBO is iffy (keep your pants on, Jeff).
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Have some gradient
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    21SEP2016 21.2 0.8 24.8-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2 26SEP2007 18.4-2.1 23.2-1.7 25.6-1.1 28.0-0.7
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    24SEP2008 21.3 0.8 25.1 0.2 26.4-0.4 28.1-0.6 23SEP2020 19.6-0.8 23.6-1.2 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.5 East to west......I like that region 1.2 is so much colder than 2008, and it cooled back .4C in the latest update, after having warmed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was negative by Novie and remained weakly negative.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....3 out of my 7 composite seasons. I think 2008-09 is a good analog, and is maybe the ceiling for this season if the NAO doesn't go to crap.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2008 is a pretty good match with respect to QBO....that is the chink in the 2007 armor, though. Raindance was claiming that direction of QBO trend is as important as state, which I am not so sure about...I asked for evidence, but never got a response.
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