40/70 Benchmark

Almost looks el nino like in that respect.

Yea, I don't feel like this season will want for chances....with a little luck, the season is entirely salvageable, and we may not need as much luck as RUNAWAYNOOSE would lead you to believe with a bit of NAO assist (I know). It doesn't appear to be a non-starter like last season ended up being, but I do expect a pretty abysmal mid winter stretch. I see could see a toned down (not AS warm February and not as robust March) 2017-2018. I think the ceiling for this December is 2008/2010.

Yea, agree. I could see a bit higher, but not much. My final range was 100-115mph...first guess on Monday was 85-100mph, which wasn't bad for that range...especially considering that I also correctly predicted the explosion to cat 4 status in the nw Caribbean.

My winter composite was dead-on. Not one of them had snowfall through the first week of October.

I went into this season with my mind made up that my outlook would be averse to any sustained NAO, but I am beginning to waiver on that idea (not just because of this)....at least with respect to December. I think it will be an active December, and the gradient maybe further south than it was in 2007.

I would not be stunned to see it come in as a strong cat 1, although cat 2 is much more likely.

DELTA Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/hurricane-delta-final-call.html?fbclid=IwAR3XtXWKFZZOOkT8WsFWhEtiOl1hdOB2slwf16nrv9PAHAboPEHC3mAJ73c New Orleans looks to have dodged yet another bullet. Landfall should occur around the sparsely populated Pecan Island, LA at around midnight tomorrow night with max sustained winds between 100 and 115mph. Main threat will be surge, but thankfully once again throughout primarily marshland. While wind won't be anything likely Laura, it will not have to be, as debris from Laura is still strewn throughout the area as projectiles at the ready. Dangerous situation for this area.....AGAIN.

Its in a relatively steady state with a slight bias towards intensification. As expected, IMO. I don't think the winds will ramp up much...maybe 110-115mph...

Haven't posted much in this thread, but have been saying all along that folks expecting a big second peak intensity in the GOM may be disappointed. Betting on something as extreme as a cat 4 for a system that has been structurally unstable and quickly expanding in size, during a season with an observed propensity to limit intensity as least excuse imaginable seemed like a risky proposition to me. That said, no issue at all with a very destructive surge potential due to the expanding size. DELTA will likely intensify at a fairly methodical pace to a secondary peak of high cat 2/low cat 3, before striking the coast as either a low end cat 2 or even high end cat 1. Regardless, wind will not be the main story, unlike Laura.

I think the of greater concern is that the fact that 2m temps are not always congruent with H5 depctions.

Long range 2m temp progs are garbage..just check the H5 and make your own inferences. To me, that prog says that the majority of the storms will not be pretty, but there should be plenty of cold around.

2014-15 was probably my second best, but def. an element of "right for the wrong reason" (tied huge snows to NAO, not EPO) that didn't sit well with me. I can't stand when people (cou-JUDAH-gh) whistle past that.

I know its a bit above average...its probably not 1995-1996, but my point is that I don't see anything that renders that a non-starter. Sure, latitude is beneficial...as is often the case in a la nina. I can already see the bitterness and resentment at the ready when the CT clan tagged my response to raindancewx's sneak preview. lol

I didn't think it was bad...a lot of people see colors that they don't like over their BY and run.

That was my best outlook of the six that I have issued. I emphasized how extreme each of those periods would be, and even implied a white xmas (xmas AM storm). Its been all down hill from there-

I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar seasonal progression.....quick start, then we stagnate in January....abysmal February, then a happy ending. Probably not as extreme with the Feb warmth, or the happy ending.

Wow.....you actually crush my area with snow. 127% of normal? I never would have guessed that. Good luck. Not so secret about your analogs anymore haha. What is the rationale behind the inclusion of 2012-2013 and last season?

Agree. The gulf coast would probably be better off it maintained intensity and remained compact.

Its flat terrain out there, too...not like Cuba.

It will be interesting to see how much DELTA going coo coo for coco puffs can spike the ACE. Should remain a major for several days.

I have always thought 1995-96 behaved more like a modest modoki el nino. Granted, 25 years ago, I know... I would love if this one acted more like a traditional modest el nino lol

Well, you are deep interior. I was nowhere near average.

All I meant was you didn't necessarily endorse the idea that cool ENSO will be generally accentuated in a world of warmer waters.

I feel pretty good about this season not being as bad as last year.

Oh, I agree. This la nina is coupled.