40/70 Benchmark

Oh, well I didn't base the snowfall forecast entirely on ENSO, though it was certainly considered. EPO was pretty hostile last season and the PNA was really only favorable in December, so I'm not sure that was very telling, either....but I agree the Pacific is very important in general.

It wasn't a weak la nina...it was moderate. I think it was just that the shearing zone between pretty favorable polar fields and a hostile Pacific set up in such a manner that systems attenuated as they approached the pike region. This hurt me and really killed points NE of me. Some spots to the north lucked out w the mega band in Dec, but it ironically set up NW of me....that was bad luck, although even that system was fading somewhat as it moved NE.

I know you are being facetious, but I see nothing to suggest that at this early juncture.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

Funny how the two previous el nino events acted like la nina, and now we got a la nina that acted like el nino...the common denominator? They all porked me-

I agree, and it would be silly to ignore that; however, it would be just as silly to disregard 100 years worth of data.

Are we still pretending that we understand exactly how said changes will manifest into the atmosphere moving forward? I understand that the global climate is changing, but enough with beating people over the head for referencing past analogues....we get it; but it doesn't entirely negate the value of the analog. Interestingly enough, I am willing to bet that the vast majority of those doing this have never ventured to issue a seasonal outlook in their lives.

92.5 @ home....Hi of 92.7

88.7 is the high so far at home, but I'm sure we will make 4 days.

Plus, I honestly think you may have kept working if a couple of things had gone a bit differently.

That was my next reply lol Dial N-O-O-S-E# for our love scorned directory....

There are 1800 hot lines for those who need help......

Rough week?

Only got down to 75 last night....UGH.

65/93 today...still 79.5 Official heat wave, with 90 Saturday and 91 Sunday.

I was at 92.8 a bit ago...91.0 now.

He is in Methuen

I remember that.

Lube?

Yea, I was speaking more of the atlantic side, but intense GOM LFs are also relatively rare because they are always interacting with mid latitude systems....you need exceptional outflow to compensate (Michael) and/or a tightly wound, rapid blow up (Charley).

Man, I can't wait for the tropics to heat up.

Right, but this also plays into why FL is not a climo hot spot for cat 4-5 LFs.

It takes a pretty anomalous ridge in place for a high-end hurricane to continue barreling west at that latitude and not recurve, while maintaining that ferocity....theoretically speaking, its very possible....but it takes a unique setup. Just like the south shore with respect to snowfall maxima....while not usually climo favored to get nailed, will get walloped due to OES assist in a cold air mass with an onshore flow. Yes, FL is vulnerable to extreme hurricanes in a general sense, theoretically speaking, but there are reasons why it is not really a climo hot spot for cat 4's and 5s.

There are climo hot spots, like the Yucatan peninsula, and Bahamas, and then other areas that while at risk in a general sense, are not so climo favored. FL to me a bit like the lower windard islands in that most severe storms in the area veer north and east of them. Its like our local snow climo....we all get nailed in a general sense, but then you have the ORH hills, etc.