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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Piece of advise....don't get hung up on 50 mile trends from a tropical system tracking se of NE....its akin to chasing a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. If things ever changed and that thing hit the US, you will see whole scale changes....its not going to get it done slowly trending to the NE from over Georgia's Bank.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you on it not being purely modoki or east-based...I have it as mixed type, like last year's event.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looking at the rest of the data...NCEP looks good. France guidance def, worst....warm and dry. UK is mild, but active...would probably be okay for at least CNE on north. Canadian is meh...bit mild, probably average precip. Its mostly about where the most negative anomalies end up in la nina, but there are of course others factors at play....especially the weaker la nina is.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks more like the modoki composite at H5....we'll see. Gonna need the la nina to shift a lot more west, like the French guidance.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro is most supported by current ENSO configuration and subsurface.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know...that is the middle ground solution, too...JMA is 95-96, and French is 1999-2000
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's going to drift west and slowly strengthen based on subsurface.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just bc the northern mid atl may not do as well as NE doesn't mean is a terd for them.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely is. No way it gets that strong.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes times a million. I just did a blog post on this.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why must everything be extreme?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last major primer for outlook. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/09/structural-nuances-in-la-nina.html
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not worried at all.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully once this humidity subsides late Saturday, we are done with it.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh....I'd be careful with absolute statements like that. Especially given how weak this event is going to be. I think that wold have more relevance with a stronger la nina. There is a reason that I binned the analogs by QBO phase and la nina intensity in that blog. I will touch more upon structure today, but again...I don't think that is a huge deal this season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its central based, but I don't think structure is as important in a modest event....marginal ENSO events are a lot more variable due to less ENSO forcing...especially lately with the HC expansion, etc.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed. I think odds of a weak are about 75%.....20% moderate, 5% neutral if I had to affix percentages.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you nailed the one aspect that I am remiss about....love baseball postseason. I may catch some of WS and will be back for snow.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not a huge factor...just another element. However, I will add that I do not believe the fact that 22/35 of your listed major PV disruptions occured during easterly QBO seasons is a coincidence.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....but the Euro is like .53, which is very weak...but I still think mod is a stretch.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, yea...I agree. This season has a high ceiling, but its no slam dunk at all.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    My wife just got her green card, so we are going to see her family....she hasn't seen her parents in person for about 6 years.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro was the first to latch onto the idea that Pete would be a waste of a name...I guess it won that bet. lol
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