40/70 Benchmark

Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage. I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late.

2007 is an extremely good ENSO analog with respect to structure. Yes, ONI weaker, but MEI is dead-nuts on... like I said, the QBO is iffy (keep your pants on, Jeff).

Have some gradient

21SEP2016 21.2 0.8 24.8-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2 26SEP2007 18.4-2.1 23.2-1.7 25.6-1.1 28.0-0.7

24SEP2008 21.3 0.8 25.1 0.2 26.4-0.4 28.1-0.6 23SEP2020 19.6-0.8 23.6-1.2 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.5 East to west......I like that region 1.2 is so much colder than 2008, and it cooled back .4C in the latest update, after having warmed.

It was negative by Novie and remained weakly negative.

Agree....3 out of my 7 composite seasons. I think 2008-09 is a good analog, and is maybe the ceiling for this season if the NAO doesn't go to crap.

I think 2008 is a pretty good match with respect to QBO....that is the chink in the 2007 armor, though. Raindance was claiming that direction of QBO trend is as important as state, which I am not so sure about...I asked for evidence, but never got a response.

Right...and I don't think that is good for the east coast, as it should induce forcing further east with time.

@Typhoon Tip My assertion of the NINA ...was kind of snarky for one. But not having much forcing is based upon a simple notion of arithmetic thinking - if the NINA is less than major, ...or, less than moderate, and in keeping with the above essence ...it should be more lost in the muting effect of the HC's having engulfed it so much so that it can't "trigger" through a direct gradient response ( which IS the circuitry) . My issue is that this isn't a marginal ENSO event, such as the last two successive warm events....MEI is and has been pinned at minus1 for two bi-monthly periods, regardless of where ONI peaks. My guess it will be on the cusp of official moderate, at least....

Hmm......

I deleted that portion...sometimes I forget forcing isn't favored under the max SST anomalies during la nina, as it is in el nino. I would like to see a shift back east to keep the forcing west.

Yea, ENSO is def. forcing this season. .

I was very confident that it would remain weak given climo, but it may be moot, anyway given that MEI is already at the cusp of moderate. This is why I included some moderate years in my latest analog composite. I could see like a -1.0 to -1.1 peak, but I would be surprised at any more than that.

It may not necessarily help much in the snowfall department, but I will bet against JF being as warm as they were last season and will most likely be right, regardless of the pattern. That was highly anomalous....even considering global warming.

I wouldn't be surprised to see December end up fine.

Eh....I think that the MEI is a solid indicator, and its been pinned at -1 for two bi monthly periods. I agree with you regarding this trend for gradient saturation, and think its important to acknowledge it, but its also important to not get carried away and dismiss ENSO altogether.

We did similarly that year and 2007-08. I had 34.5" in 2006-07.

Yea, seeing some signs Feb won't be much fun this season.

You are right. The script and AO did flip, but it was more focused on NNE. We did "okay" in VD mixed bag, then SPD was the best pure snowfall of the season....about 1' in our area nw of town.

I remember you expressing concern over that last fall.

The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.

You have the same station I do.

He'll be giving himself a prostate massage with that forecast in no time. lol

Yea, I made out fine in the first event...got like 8" of paste, in W Wilmington, but I expected more in the follow up wave. I got a quick 2" of slush...was like, "Yes, I made it".....then it flipped to rain and poured all night. Heard N Billerica had like 5" and I lost my $hit. Steep pack gradient after those events....I still had several inches of cement, while my dad in Woburn square was wiped clean.