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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough. I suspect this ENSO event evolves more traditionally...we shall see.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    1995-1996 def. did....2010-2011 maybe a little bit, but it was def more N stream. It may have been a bit of a hybrid in the sense that there some southerly Miller B events.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get the Hadley Cell expansion....its real..not debating it. But you only seem to mention the past three ENSO events that have not really acted as expected. The weak el nino event of 2014-2015 went about as expected..so didn't the 2017-2018 weak la nina. I don't think the 2016-2017 event was that out of the ordinary either. We still have modest ENSO events that do in fact behave in a traditional manner....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would expect a northern stream dominated season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, 2017 was solidly east based....this is more hybrid, like last year.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had a couple of blogs this week... check it out.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some very, very interesting takes in here today.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I want get together after I get back from Africa..been way too long.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    So this should prevent it from going modoki.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looked like both dry air and ERC to me.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    8 or 9 out of 10.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Opal peaked as a 4 at 150mph winds.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's obviously peaked...as 8-9/10 post ERC systems have.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the winter implications it can have....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    48.2 for the low.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank god the dewy rev is gone...I like the cold biased version better.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is the source that I cited for those looking for more information on la nina structure. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2018.1386538
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Edge of my seat...
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very negative EPO, too...that was all pacific.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, I am def not rooting against that analog...lol Cosgrove was mentioning it last night.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The weaker la nina is, the more chances for other variables to intervene.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily...on paper, 2010 was perfect...but those patterns lead more room for suppression.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are far enough north that lining up the slot machines with all $ doesn't always end well...the mid atl needs that.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stronger la nina correlates to a -PDO, not the other way around....huge Aleutian ridge forces a downstream western US trough.
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