40/70 Benchmark

That is wrong IMO....assuming the warm ENSO event is coupled, the placement of the anomalies does dictate forcing and Hadley cell arrangement. I understand that perhaps the past couple were negated by the expanding Hadley cell....I am speaking of the ENSO events that do couple. The MEI does imply that the past two were poorly coupled, but so were 2004 and 2014.

Its also possible that the past two winters under performed expectations for other reasons, as other modoki seasons have in the past.

"StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)".

I used it in one of my outlooks. l'll grab it.

I couldn't care less at that range.

The 1815 redux must have waned last night bc the usual suspects were quiet on FB..

I know....toss one out every now and then for kicks if its extreme...but please keep the day 15 rea out of this thread.

The subsurface...I will have to dig up Chuck's research when I get a chance, but something along the lines of the summer subsurface resurfacing in winter. I think that is the origin of the correlation.

I'm surprised that this comment did not garner more attention. I think it is very significant. While I believe that the DM NAO will once again average positive, I agree that it should evolve differently from some of the recent hostility in that region.

What are the result for it this year? I remember your correlation began very promising, but has struggled of late. No offense, as that if often the case in this field and doesn't mean that there is not value there. I do agree that summer has more predictive utility with respect to the winter time NAO, than does October.

Just going off of memory, but I think 10/2007 was very mild around these parts....pretty benign autumn until the switch got flipped about 12/3.

I get it, but we were due for some bad modoki karma.

There are no absolute correlations. There is no index that is always going to work out in the favored manner...not within a realm as a chaotic as the earth's atmosphere. There are too many other variables at play. 2007-2008 and 2014-2015 were great...hope we pull off another +NAO! The frame of mind should not be "modoki, HUGE snows...or +NAO, see you next year.".....but rather, there is a modoki, so I like my chances"....or "The NAO will likely be positive, so there is less margin for error".

That mentality is silly. Its not a fraud 5...its very valid. I mean, the previous two modoki seasons prior to these past two duds were 2004-2005 and 2014-2015....2009-2010 also, but the strength of it made the STJ a bit too prevalent for us. Short memory.

Yea, always remain mindful a poster's location when considering their perspective. The first thing that I thought of after reading that was "well, you live on the cape, dude". lol

Exactly.

Looks like a milder version of 1968-69...how much milder and how much snow dependent upon NAO. Jeff must be just naked and sprawled out on a bear skin rug in the woods, oiling himself.

That screams SWFE and Miller B East to me.

Right....MBY.

There are several seasons throughout my life that I would rate as worse than last year.

I can IMO....2011-2012 was worse for me. Got boned in the October deal, and the rest was a non starter. At least I got that MECS in December during the holiday season.

Yes. The euro looked great last year at this time. Again, not to discount the fact that there are some factors working against us, but it could def. look worse IMO.

I don't put much stock in that...it essentially means there is a heightened risk for below normal snow relative to climo...this isn't news considering an intensifying la nina. It doesn't mean a repeat of last season is en route.

Bingo. There is SOME value to it if used appropriately, which Judah is not doing.