40/70 Benchmark

Last update from me until go-time Novie 11. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/mixed-signals-regarding-enso-for-winter.html

More Scott and Will than me....but yea. Passive aggressive extraction of information.

He's trying to coax you into asserting otherwise, so that he can fit snuggly into his pinstriped footie jammies tonight with a peace of mind.

@Dr. Dews, What I meant was this winter should be serviceable...IOW, not a complete no-show, like last year.

@Typhoon Tip This piece of literature from several years ago seems to harken back to what you were saying about the Pacific driving the atlantic. In addition, many studies reported that the tropical Pacific heating have effects on the tropical Atlantic SST anomaly (Wolter 1987; Curtis and Hastenrath 1995; Gallego et al. 2001; Alexander et al. 2002; Huang et al. 2002), which is argued to affect the North Atlantic atmosphere (e.g., Watanabe and Kimoto 1999; Robertson et al. 2000). Therefore, the tropical Atlantic SST may serve as a mediator to link the tropical Pacific SST anomaly and the NA atmosphere. You guys should have a look at this piece....great job at detailing the divergent la nina evolutions, and the differences across NA. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Yes, we rest our case. Of course, you also had gm 7 of 2003....but the innings were "serviceable". As this winter should be.

Yea, can't stand him as a analyst, though....as vanilla as they get.

And to expound on this point.....big reason they came back from down 3-0 is that Wake pitched like 4 innings in relief as they were getting waxed in game 3 of the ALCS by the Yanks. Saved the staff.

Yes. 2004, 2007.

Some halfway decent elevation in spots, too...relatively speaking

2011 and 1999 were also fairly east-based, so no sure thing...but helps.

14OCT2020 19.6-1.2 23.6-1.3 25.3-1.4 27.8-0.9 Region 1.2 hanging tough at -1.2.....3.4 down to -1.4

Almost like the ENSO deformation zone haha Exactly. Same page....pinning the forcing west is never a bad thing.

Do you agree with what I said about potentially keeping westward progression at bay?

Yes...split flow. But all things being equal, I will take the cold source....obviously in la nina when its probably all N stream.

I know its not sexy, but its necessary. Akin to why Wakefield was underappreciated with the Red Sox....guys who throw 200 serviceable IP/season do not grow on trees. You can't win without them. The cold source is Tim Wakefield....Pedro's starts would not have mattered without guys like him.

This may explain why la nina hasn't been migrating westward as assertively as guidance had suggested.

All you can realistically ask for as a fan of winter weather in the mid latitudes is a cold source relatively near by. That essentially eliminates the possibility of a wall-to-wall dead-ratter in the absence of some exotically bad luck. I think people underestimate the value in that.

All that matters right now.

I didn't do winter outlooks back then...I started in the fall of 2014. You mean my feelings leading up to storms? My outlook wil be out in a few weeks, but will have one more interim update this week. The gradient may not be too dissimilar to that season, though I would hesitate to predict 130" in central NH again.

Down to 29.3 this AM. Nice.

Being east based helps, as well. It can keep the forcing closer to the dateline.

I saw that. Not happening in terms of strength of la nina, but same periods may remind us of that winter.