40/70 Benchmark

This is the equivalent of winter threads in November...blue balls abound, but not much in the offing quite yet.

I honestly don't think it matters much. The MEI is pretty robust, so I'd be considering moderate analogs, anyway.

Agree. I value the MEI, but its important not to get too carried away with it. It just means that this particular ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere....its not an excuse to expect a strong la nina outcome with a weak ONI designation. However, I wouldn't hesitate to incorporate some moderate strength analogs despite ONI merely reflecting weak if that ends up being the case.

Yea, been hedging that way for a while, but it feels like some folks get too carried away with the subsurface....those intense anomalies often don't entirely make it to the surface. Def. a feather in the hat of the la nina camp, though.

This la nina is not going to be strong. I wouldn't rule out nudging into moderate territory, but weak la nina is by far the most favored outcome and has been for a bit.

I get that the solar cycle has some value, as everything should be considered, but it is not the only factor. The fact of the matter is that in the grand scheme of things, we have been in quite a stretch of predominately +NAO seasons. Prior to last winter, we had experienced just one negative NAO DM month dating back to March 2013 (March 2018). Again, I understand that neg NAO is more favored around and immediately following solar min, but other than that context, we are most assuredly not due for positive NAO winter seasons. Quite the contrary. I'm not suggesting that this means that we have to see a succession of negative NAO seasons, but it is what it is.

Just some light rain at home....it really picked up once I hit rt 128 and was pouring here at work in Chelsea.

No, its those new, fangled, exciting type of rain drops this time.

Intuitively, I would say that it is likely due to the wave lengths being so much shorter during the summer....the teles are much weaker and more diffuse, so many of the "rules" are broken.

If the predominate pattern of the season holds, then the east coast (not necessarily northeast) is going to have issues...that was the gist of my blog.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-season-set-to-ramp-up.html

I was pretty close, but averaged slightly more negative than I forecast. I was right about the first neg NAO DM month since March 2018, though. Odds are that a weaker nina would have been colder, but not necessarily....especially in the middle of the country, as it was very cold there. If it were weaker and more modoki like, it could have even been warmer...bottom line is that there are so many other factors at play that you can't say definitively, but on average they weaker they are, the colder they are.

No, no....I agree that modularity is more important than mode...you want mass flux, and this is what is paramount for major cyclogenesis...of course. All I meant was that you want it rising from -.5 and not +1, or else you run a much larger risk of precipitation type issues. We more or less agree.

Yea, they are in sync about 70% of the time, I believe....while I agree that many oversimplify it, I would rather have a neg NAO than not beneath the latitude of NNE...especially during a cold ENSO event when the Pacific may not be great. Finally, while the polar domain is certainly more stochastic in nature than the larger scale Pacific based teles, I think the prudent course of action is to err on the side of more influence with respect to solar considerations than less, since its just a pervasive influence about which so little is known. JMHO.

Thanks for this...excellent post. Very much appreciated bc I am not well versed in the solar aspect. This looks favorable for a neg NAO, especially in conjunction with a weak ENSO. The only apparent mitigating factor is the potential modoki nature of this developing cold ENSO event.

Certainly....weak la nina and a -QBO is a pretty good combo for cold...however, what is also important is the structure of the la nina...ie, east or west based. This season's looks like it may be more west-based, which is not quite as favorable for cold. But wouldn't worry too much bc it should be weak.

We'll see how things look as we get closer, but just my guess. And my gut isn't so small haha

My gut says another blocky winter en route....this is admittedly purely anecdotal, as we had been on quite a run of positive NAO seasons. Regression to the mean works both ways.....

I think that is what is important with respect to the NAO...obviously, you would rather have it average negative, but variability is what fosters ample storm opportunity.

I would not be surprised at a pretty decent spell of neg NAO over the course of the next few years....anecdotally speaking, it had become a real scarcity over the past decade.

2013-2014 and 1993-1994 are both overrated winters for me because they under performed locally.

I went a month in January during which it pretty much remained below freezing. Pretty steady stream of moderate snowfalls....kind of 1994 like, though modified a bit.

82.5" and beat ORH...take. Methuen probably had near 90".

Yea, I am pretty sold on a weak la nina. Here is an excerpt from my blog...not the end all be all, but climo tidbits like that add confidence: Climatology is also strongly opposed to the notion of an el nino. Currently, the ONI for the AMJ tri-monthly period sits at -0.5c. Dating back to 1950, there are only four years that featured a negative ONI value for the AMJ tri-monthly period and went on to develop into a classified el nino. They are: 1976: -0.3c 2018: -0.2c 1986:-0.1c 2006: -0.1c Thus since 1950, no el nino event developed following an AMJ ONI value this low, which would make the development of an el nino later this year unprecedented. In fact, climatology actually favors the development of a la nina at this point. Only once since 1950 (1989 -0.6C) has there not been an official la nina registered during the autumn or winter following a AMJ tri-monthly ONI of -0.5c or lower.

LOL I probably have about 3 more years before I head back south a bit.