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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Models struggle in extreme scenarios and don't always adequately account for all meteorological phenomena...its like during winter, when models will print out cirrus over the Berkshires with a 970mb tempest just inside of the benchmark. Its incumbent on the forecaster to account for mid level features. Same deal here...intensity guidance can not entirely resolve what is beginning to happen and what will transpire over the course of the next 36-48 hours. The forecaster needs to.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The key to my forecast is that I don't think this has much time to complete an ERC, but even if it does, we will just trade some wind impact for more surge. This one will rank up there.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Little without higher terrain passage.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny, Michael was one of the big five (along with Katrina, Andrew, Camille and Labor day '35) that I referenced in my forecast for cat 4-5 landfall yesteday.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Michael was one of the big five that I cited in my forecast for a reason. Sit back, and enjoy the show.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly right. I called for it yesterday, but someone like me can do that because no once cares what I do and the lives of thousands don't depend on it. I totally get why the NHC plays it the way that they do.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    True....somewhat. That scenario is not ideal for realizing max surge potential.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is the key to the intensity forecast...JMHO, but I feel the only way that time is much of an impediment is if the core is severely disrupted by higher terrain over Cuba, which as of now is unlikely.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    All the reduced time frame does is limit chances to complete an ERC. This is why the majority of the most intense US landfalls are not long tracking CV storms....wild card being the degree of interaction with higher terrain over Cuba.
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  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Top ten natural disaster in the making IMHO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/developing-ida-poses-potentially.html
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....only hope for LA is intensity nuances due to internal processes, and track nuances that could focus most severe impacts over marsh land. We saw that with respect to surge in Laura, and wind in Andrew.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that...what I mean is that a smaller system offers less surge potential, so smaller circulation, while also being more prone to a faster ERC to lower wind, would also inherently have less surge potential. But yes, ERC do increase surge potential relative to each individual storm.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I would hope for if I lived in Louisiana, short of Lake Ponchetrain spontaneously filling over the course of the next 84 hours, is for IDA to have a very small circulation, which would expedite the evolution and perhaps make an ERC more likely and also minimize surge, as well. If this thing has a large circulation, forget....good night.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Aggressive is the way to go here.....you need to properly convey a cataclysmic sense of urgency here because there is a very realistic chance at such an out come. That Henri BS was not the time to lay out worst case scenarios because it was always highly unlikely....in this case, it is not unlikely.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am preparing my first look right now...my initial inclination is that there won't be much time to undergo an ERC relative to if this had struck the NW corner of the GOM....this is a bit of good news with respect to surge potential, and potentially dire in terms of wind.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I guess we have different methodologies because quite frankly, I just don't value those statistics very much. Its essentially persistence forecasting with lipstick. It just feels like the mean didn't suite your argument, so you cherry picked the data a bit more. That said, I am certainly not ruling out moderate la nina, however, I do feel strong is off of the table and weak is most likely. Well see what happens, Larry.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would pay them a nominal feel to do it and end this reign of unusable snowfall data from KBOS.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you read way too far in...just ball breaking.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really from like May to July...maybe a quick drive by now and again.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Morch" is not a winter month, yet September is a summer month with relentless dews....funny how that works.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its like March....wintry stretches come, but they have neither the ferocity nor staying power.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like summer's back is bending next week.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gee...that is unlike you, thought no one ever.
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