40/70 Benchmark

Yea, you were better with the time frame...awesome. I was off by a few days last fall and had the RNA to PNA handoff backwards. January Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x3), 2001, 2018, 2012, 1989, 1965, 1976 "There is a slight chance of a KU magnitude, Archambault type east coast snowfall between approximately December 28th and January 11th, as any residual high latitude blocking erodes and heights lower in the vicinity of Alaska and western Canada. Heights will also lower in the western US as the aleutian ridge retrogrades into the pacific and a sustained RNA accompanies the development of an active, zonal pacific storm track.

Doubt it back here.

Track is dependent on degree and timing of phasing...not that simple.

Quick note on GEFS.....that track is the mean of OTS camp, and interior hit camp. Some have stronger southern wave that remains discrete from n stream and scoots out to sea. Path to most snow is probably a slight tic east with a good front ender bc the other option is probably a brush if it doesn't phase. I favor the slight tick east

Why do you think the GEPS didn't change?

Yea, the blizzard, I think.

CMC ensembles are still hideous.

Thanks so much, Chris...learn a ton from your insight. Expect a canal census to emerge.

GEM and UK didn't, either...EURO pending...

Right, but wouldn't the OP go east, too then?

Why did the GEFS go east so much with that new data?

Vice versa...ensembles already there

Hmm John was saying that trending weaker would send it east...

I'll bet OPs shift east tomorrow when that SW is sampled.

My call remains upper cape..like Falmouth..maybe canal

I'm just kidding, sorry if I offended you.

Pop the dentures in and chew a gummy

So in this case, greater western heights are bad....holy shit the irony considering December...not sure whether to laugh or cry.

There are changes forthcoming.

Yea...."at least". I think worst case is 2-5".

This is why the ensembles are better. Makes sense.

I'm getting at least a few inches, regardless....Boston and SE MA more dubious.

Yes. Deform in Toronto.

ICON can pull a 2018 Steave Pearce

I'll take whatever I can get, at this point.