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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Top ten natural disaster in the making IMHO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/developing-ida-poses-potentially.html
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely....only hope for LA is intensity nuances due to internal processes, and track nuances that could focus most severe impacts over marsh land. We saw that with respect to surge in Laura, and wind in Andrew.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that...what I mean is that a smaller system offers less surge potential, so smaller circulation, while also being more prone to a faster ERC to lower wind, would also inherently have less surge potential. But yes, ERC do increase surge potential relative to each individual storm.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I would hope for if I lived in Louisiana, short of Lake Ponchetrain spontaneously filling over the course of the next 84 hours, is for IDA to have a very small circulation, which would expedite the evolution and perhaps make an ERC more likely and also minimize surge, as well. If this thing has a large circulation, forget....good night.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Aggressive is the way to go here.....you need to properly convey a cataclysmic sense of urgency here because there is a very realistic chance at such an out come. That Henri BS was not the time to lay out worst case scenarios because it was always highly unlikely....in this case, it is not unlikely.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am preparing my first look right now...my initial inclination is that there won't be much time to undergo an ERC relative to if this had struck the NW corner of the GOM....this is a bit of good news with respect to surge potential, and potentially dire in terms of wind.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I guess we have different methodologies because quite frankly, I just don't value those statistics very much. Its essentially persistence forecasting with lipstick. It just feels like the mean didn't suite your argument, so you cherry picked the data a bit more. That said, I am certainly not ruling out moderate la nina, however, I do feel strong is off of the table and weak is most likely. Well see what happens, Larry.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would pay them a nominal feel to do it and end this reign of unusable snowfall data from KBOS.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you read way too far in...just ball breaking.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really from like May to July...maybe a quick drive by now and again.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Morch" is not a winter month, yet September is a summer month with relentless dews....funny how that works.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its like March....wintry stretches come, but they have neither the ferocity nor staying power.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like summer's back is bending next week.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gee...that is unlike you, thought no one ever.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going to need devine intervention from the ERC gods in order to avoid an all out calamity IMHO...that, and/or a fortuitous track over the marshland of SW LA.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    That coupled with current OHC profile and dual outflow channels is the blue print to avoiding the northern Gulf coast collapser sceanario. Strikes me a scenario in which landfall intensity will be driven nearly exclusively by internal processes.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    To chase? That is on my bucket list...along with a 4'+ Rockies blitz
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may have a slightly more favorable set up for maintaining intensity to LF than Laura did.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad I don't live in the area, though I do work in Chelsea....maybe I could find my old Buick to do drove by roof measurements? lol
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    GAS UP!
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he is a seasonal dude like me..says he was here Friday, but that may just have been due to Henri.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am optimistic in general.....also helps that la nina no longer appears to be shaping up as modoki, per subsurface trends. This may help to focus forcing more westward out in the Pacific over the course of the cold season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great point...all the more reason to be careful about going too gung-ho with la nina in the analog package. LOL at the bolded...priceless quote.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have an issue with including some moderate cool ENSO seasons in the analog package, especially moderate seasons that peaked near the weak/moderate threshold, like 2011 and 1984....because the MEI is at -1.5 right now, so this event is very well coupled. But I would not include any strong cool ENSO seasons at this point. But to each their own.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just came to the same, exact conclusion in my blog update on Monday. This is a bit of good news for fans of winter in the east.
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