40/70 Benchmark

You know what I mean, dude....we missed out on the very heavy amounts. And I disagree that if I had experienced what NYC did in that January 2016 storm, then I would not have graded it an "F". If you poll most NYC weenies, they probably would not grade it an F.

I agree in general, however, last autumn was so mild that most of the analogs for that degree of warmth in the fall were ratters....if you went based just upon that, then a ratter would have been the forecast. That is what Fisher did, which I thought was silly and still do. This was not a prototypical ratter of a season, but unfortunately the interior just never caught a break.

Depends on the location....both of those seasons, this year and 2015-2016, had historic blizzards.....so it was really only a bad season if you missed out on said events. I-95 had a pretty good snowfall season this year.

That signal a week out is almost worth paying attention to.

Doubtful.

For the kids? That's Mooseup's best seller and Steve's bedside reading

Pfffftttt

.64" RF today....nice soaking. Hi of 47

I'm checked out at this point.....I don't have any ideas RE anything. All I need to know is that no snow is imminent, so I'm off to baseball.

This month doesn't look to end up particularly notable for any reason.

Yea, I missed that one haha

Caveat being its always pretty unlikely from late March onward....but I would argue that you have to toss the whole "tenor of the season" thing at that point, as well....everything just reshuffles as the wavelengths shorten and it really ceases to be relevant anymore. It just becomes a total crapshoot/lottery.

The first December event was good where we are, but the second one was snow to rain.

Yea, I bet against the sun late season and lost....my amounts were still good near the coast, but total fail across the interior.

You never know....96-97 was the ultimate rat season until March 31-April 1. Obviously I agree its unlikely to happen...that is why I am so scare these days.

The largest key is more data IMO. As far as models go, I look to then for confirmation...they don't constitute my forecast. They aren't very skilled at the seasonal level, either.

Well, I agree with you that if you are going to throw out specific analog seasons, then it is very important to be detailed in explaining what their perceived value is and why.

Well, I would certainly hope Noyes would have better luck forecasting at 30 days lead, as opposed to 3-4 months lead. I don't really have an issue with a set of analog seasons not being disclosed per se, but I am pretty confident that anyone making a seasonal outlook examines the past to some degree.....even "examining patterns leading into the winter months" implies that they are comparing it to past seasons in order to try to glean some idea of how the pattern may evolve moving forward. I don't think anyone will forecast a cold winter simply because October, November and December were cold and stormy....patterns flip.

I completely agree with you on that...if I use 1976-1977 as a primary analog, there is no way that I would expect it to be as cold today. Recognizing that and responsibly using analog seasons are not mutually exclusive, they are analogous. Larry Cosgrove would tell you that....he spouts off analog seasons all throughout the lead up to winter.

There are so many different variables at play, that forecasts miss "something" more often than not...either that, and/or they are not weighted properly into the forecast. Example...I was able to discern that the Aleutian ridging would have episodes where it extended far enough poleward to induce some notable wintery periods by looking at past east biased la nina seasons..ie, no total blow torch rater like 2011-2012. However, I apparently did not weight the abrupt rise in solar activity that took place last fall heavily enough, so the forecast SSW/blocking never materialized. The poleward Aleutian ridging was able to compromise to a degree, but even that failed in March. We do know from utilizing analogs of past seasons that an abrupt rise in solar activity is detrimental to blocking, but I made the decision that it wouldn't play as large a role as it apparently did. You can use analogs, and still miss...no one is implying its a "silver bullet"...it is incumbent upon the forecaster to apply and weight them correctly.

I'm not sure how you can begin to formulate an idea of what will happen months in advance without analyzing the past to some degree. Again, doesn't have to mean you are right.

The incorrect ones, absolutely. Don't confuse what I am saying....using analog seasons doesn't mean you have to be right. At the end of the day, regardless of whether you provide a list of seasons or don't, the return rate on accurate forecasts is relatively low.

Well, let me know when you make a concerted effort to apply them. I understand if you do not want to disclose a list of analog seasons per se, but anyone claiming to compose a seasonal forecast without analyzing the past to at least some degree is full of shit.

I love when it gets dark early around the holidays. Hopefully this gets hung up. Would also means models will always be an hour later, which would suck.

Depends how they are used....if you expect any given analog year to be a virtual carbon copy of the forecast season, then they are all pretty likely to fail. ....however, if you are just looking to glean a better idea of what may or may not happen in a given season, then they are very useful. I used some seasons that were pretty snowy, and others that were not snowy at all and very specific reasons were given why.