Believe me, I don't always see eye to eye with him, but he's a good forecaster. I didn't say he's always been correct, but the past 5 years has favored the west on paper, for the most part.
Well, to be fair, we've had a warm ENSO that acted like a cold ENSO, a torch el nino and triple dip la nina. I think he is very good, but just acts like a complete jerk with some sort of personality disorder(s).
3.4 remained steady at -0.8 at of 10/5. This event is running out of time pretty quickly to even peak as a bonafide moderate event, especially if it decays as quickly as guidance suggests.
I'm sure it won't be, like 99 out of 100 "severe" threats around here. I'll go waaaaaay out on a limb and guess that the storms will be more ominous through the Berkshires and into the ORH hills, and then weaken markedly as they descend the spine and onto the coastal plane. I haven't labored through any CAPE maps, but just a wild shot in the dark....
My reading comp isn't perfect by any means, but the post seems to be implying reason for pause with respect to wholesale changes, as guidance has been exhibiting a -PNA bias and the NAO looks to dip decidedly negative.
I have no issue with ORH, but would prefer December. I have a bunch of bdays in Novie, including my own, plus I'll be hammering out the outlook early on.