I'm confident it will be at least moderate...maybe even strong, but it won't be a super event...modokis do not do that due to the currents associated with the dynamics of the Walker Cycle.
I think it will be like 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10.
It's really tough to get big rain AND win from a tropical system at this latitude at any given locale..exceedingly rare due to extratropical transition.
It's all about track at this latitude...if it goes west of your longitude, then its just a drencher... that's why it irritates me when people see a storm molded to track over ACK and say it's a weenie solution....not to mention 9/10 times they will trend east up here.
The coast and ORH county are better for jackpots than my area of the interior coastal plane and MRV. The coast has a higher frequency of ratters than I do, though.
Not synoptically, but the mesoscale stuff more....I was shocked you kept drinking "the band will get to you" kool aid last January....I was back fast sleep by noon.
I knew it was a lost cause.
Not indefinitely. Believe it or not, I do like the widespread monsters that get everyone, but I would like a few other select areas to suffer like I have for a bit.