40/70 Benchmark

I know what you mean, but I really am not doing that....the band will snap, and we will have el nino next year, if not this season. Like I said, probably next year, which is when we could combine it with an easterly QBO.

The next el nino that we have will be a modoki....take it the bank. We always have a money-shot el nino when we emerge from these multi-season cold ENSO regimes. Probably 2023-2024 season.

Not seeing the el nino anymore, at this point, but warm neutral still has a shot.

I had about 100" on the longer range GEM last winter.

I have a Roth 401K and a state pension...also doing therapy on the side, so should be able to get SS.

An el nino by CPC standards is very unlikely. The MAM ONI is -1.1. Since 1950, the only two seasons to go on to qualify as an official el nino during the subsequent cold seasons following a MAM ONI of -0.5 or lower are 1976 and 2018...both merely -0.5 MAM ONI. They each peaked at +0.9 ONI....still weak. Even a recovery that drastic only takes us to a peak ONI of +0.3, which is warm neutral. Now, this isn't to say that we absolutely can not pull off an el nino like season, as arbitrary thresholds are not the ultimate determinant. There a small chance....as in addition to last December, the other extreme -PDO Decembers are 1955, 1964, 2008 and 2010. We would need to pull off a recovery similar to 2009, on the heels of the extreme 12/2008 PDO, which recovered from a MAM 2009 ONI of -0.3 to +1.6 in NDJ. I do not see that, but this kind of PAC reversal would take us back up to a peak of +0.8 ONI for the cold season, which would be weak el nino.

Yea, all we hear about in December is the impending grinch....before, during and after.

Yea, I can't see a full fledged el nino, either, but I do think that warm-neutral remains on the table.

Yea, I thought the Pacific would end up a hair less favorable, and the Atlantic/polar domain a bit better...in the end, not bad. I def. had the idea of poleward Aleutian ridging owed to east biased la nina. Interesting regarding the correlation....that is one area that I am weak on. I don't really incorporate those, aside from ENSO forecasting. Those correlations are something that I see you and raindance use alot.

I'm sure we'll pay for this on the back nine of summer and early on in fall, but I will take the low dews as long as I can.

71 is fine with me.

And some others may need a mental status check waiting for the weekend warmth. I maybe on call this weekend.

Hey, if I can't win in winter. I'll take solace in flannel on daddy day.

I'll take it.

Diet soda or Odoul's will have to do these days.

I firmly believe that you are incapable, degree or not. I challenge you to try it this year. But then again, deflecting from that by trolling is easier, isn't it?

IDK, ask him.

Lets just get a degree and post about weather on a forum instead of working

I had also pulled up the data, but realized after that fact that I had accidently viewed 1000mb and not surface, so had to walk it back lol

Yea, I was wrong. Sorry for clogging the thread.

Yea, I feel like the guidance will warm later towards the fall. I do not see an el nino by CPC guidelines, but warm neutral is in play.

Yea. I can deal with this kind of a torch...just keep that midwest crap at bay,

I agree....must just be the relative absence of humidity...which I know will change later in the season.

No, you're fine...I respect when someone proves me wrong with empirical evidence, rather than just devolving it into a pissing contest.

Yes, congrats. Unlike so many on here, I will admit when proven wrong.