40/70 Benchmark

947

May have peaked..

I was about to say, looks bordering cat 5 to me based on SAT presentation..

I may pull an all nighter..time to watch Camille footage to pregame

Final Call unchanged from First Call on Thursday PM. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/extreme-hurricane-ida-rapidly.html

Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI. Yes.

Not sure why this got a weenie, but its absolutely true...intensifying systems more proficiently mix higher gusts down to the surface.

The post Katrina wall can take up to 15'.

This was the basis to my extreme First Call on Thursday. Still feel that way.

Which still ends up cat 4.

Yea, I have 30+ years myself, and still learn something new every year, so who knows....its def intensifying steadily, just maybe not the insane rates that we had expected...mainly because of Cuba IMHO.

Yea, they probably want to avoid overshooting again, so just waiting on recon.

Wow...maybe compensating since the 105mph was originally a bit generous.

Yes

Cat 3 125mph

My money is on 115mph.

More like 15-18 hrs

Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible

That will be challenged IMO...will be close, unless it curls more west

Bad for wind, good for surge.

Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.

This system reminds me of a post ERC storm in terms of sat presentation...just an anecdotal ob.. .I wonder if some funky internal stuff went on due to friction of land

I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always.