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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Lets get H5 to close off in Houston next time, to make for more fun forecasts. You guys mock me about LBSW, but the number one way to c0ck block your self from a biggie is having H5 close off a decade before it reaches you....it just introduces an orgy of limiting factors.
  2. Yea, too many issues....I have learned to let ones like this go a far as expectations. When you need a venn diagram to map out your path to heavy snow, its probably best to not pin your expectations to big amounts. "We need this lobe to trend weaker, this one stronger so that these phase later, and tracks east, and that occludes slower"...blah, I'd rather sit on a piranha.
  3. Yea, correction vector is worse, not better. This is not going to be a good event...no doubt in my mind anymore. I think max zones in SNE are like 4-8"
  4. I'm officially out on a really tasty solution. I expect like 3-5" here and then a flip to rain and slot.
  5. Phasing hardly ever send up as proficient or fast as originally modeled...been saying that.
  6. Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto.
  7. I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers.
  8. GEM and GFS are actually in pretty good agreement on where the gradient may end up.
  9. Get this thing to hook and ladder out under SNE, and I'll probably be looking for a new job
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