40/70 Benchmark

Let it die...less yard work.

Triggered over missing the rain? I really don't care-

Yea, I feel like +NAO is a given, but could be some more favorable stretches early and late.

I'm actually not that concerned about the negative PDO....my hunch is that we actually average a slightly positive PNA. The larger concern will be the tendency for a fairly flat Aleutian ridge if la nina remains modoki through the fall and into the winter, which is not a given.

Two points: 1) Do we really need to ferret out tweets at this point to re enforce the notion of a third consecutive la nina this winter? No one is doubting that at this stage... 2) Be careful what you wish for because if you look at the structure of the subsurface right now, a strong easterly wind burst near the dateline is only going to serve to erode the modoki nature of this la nina.

Even though its mostly a whiff, its still nice to see a nor' easter develop this early in the season.

That solution verbatim is NBD.

Overall unfavorable, but that doesn't mean that there can't be some favorable stretches....early and late is the most likely timeframe for any such period IMO.

The NAO will average positive, but that doesn't mean we will never see neg NAO...best shots are early and late IMO. PNA may be decent, too, which could save us.

Strong and east based is small sample, but good....2010-2011 and 1956-1957.

Lol Thanks

It won't be weaker...we are ascending into SC 25, but I think those sudden, big flare ups can wreak havoc with the polar domain.

March 1975 was pretty good, too.

Yup...big solar flare. I also think the solar flare last October played a role in keeping the polar domain pretty hostile most of the season...thankfully we got the poleward Aleutian ridge in January with the la nina being so eastern biased. I'm not worried about a 2011-2012 outcome, but we will deal with some lower heights up there is this remains a modoki.

Yea, I have been placing the over/under at 1/2" for eastern areas.

Yep. What a PITA forecast.

But if it has some tropical characteristics, then there will be plenty of moisture....just maybe more compact.

Good consensus for at least about a half inch of rain here...whether I get grazed on the western edge, or its LBSE TBD.

If you are really worried about that stray 2011-2012 outcome, then I guess it would be comforting to see it more basin wide. Last year I saved the la nina EMI composites for the outlook itself because I was still editing them, but I can probably introduce them next week, since its all I need to do is add last season to the east-based composite.

I think the most significant change would be that we would be more likely to see some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging, but unless it were strong, the data doesn't show that it is a huge deal. As far as intensity....sure, a moderate peak is definitely plausible because its never really strayed far below that threshold, but again....I don't feel its a big deal unless it got closer to the strong threshold, which I do not expect. I think basin wide could also alter the timing in that it would increase the odds of a favorable mid season stretch, and place less emphasis early on in the season, but that is kind of minute detail for this range.

Maybe this is Brian's Redzone run...

At least the discourse over my posting habits doesn't detract from the quality of the threads as much as the discussion of actual weather phenomena apparently does.

You don't have the Payperview GFS+ package?

I think he interpreted that as me doubting his measurement, but I was actually referring to some of the smaller numbers that should have been higher due to settling over time and wind displacement, etc.