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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chuck bases his NAO formula off of that and it's actually indicative of a weak neg NAO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most of the higher end members have big months of March, which makes perfect sense to me.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    It would be funny if KCON ended up with 70" and I got 40"....if you wanna see me completely lose my shit after LBSW last year. In my experience, gradients like that are usually between the pike and I 84, not S NH.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is Concord, NH that has 70". I'd take my chances with that look because I feel like the gradient would be a bit further south.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's a late 90's la nina.....good news is that the gradient is near by, so it wouldn't take much to end up with like 70" in that look.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    2011 was also an extreme modoki la nina...which this one has not been to date, though it does look more so recently.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    KLWM
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...that is accurate right down to the inch...impressive. I measured 51" last year.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still have my doubts RE moderate. I also question how much more unfavorable the euro got due to just a slight increase in la nina intensity bc the structure was largely unchanged. I anticipated seeing that it had gone modoki when I saw the H5 and 2m charts, but not the case...still basin wide. I think quidance jumped the gun a bit here. Caveat being we will need to watch it closely over the next month bc its def shifted modoki in real time at present.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro looks like it has a decent gradient near the pike...reminds me of 2007-2008.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Euro is warmer, but def more active pattern than last run...especially up and in.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Awful snowfall season...like 30% or less of seasonal snowfall.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The Euro trended from weak to moderate la nina, but still looks basin wide to me....not modoki.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1445833062617530372?t=sBnVt1WYxAO637V9U1B7uA&s=19
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the only way Kev wins this season is if it's a ratter. JMO.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I had 94.5"...I can double check tmw
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I also think they are likely to err warm in 2m temp, as that dense cold will be in abundance to the north.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think October guidance trending warmer is in response to some changes in the tropics. I'll have plenty of time to dissect that from Africa over the next few weeks, and should issue pretty quickly after I return. I wouldn't get too worked up.....yet.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those are not good changes in the aggregate...looks more RNA and +EPO
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I couldn't care any less about the weather around here this weekend lol
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def....I'll have more down time this go around. I had a pretty tight itinerary last go around.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are some mixed signals in the tropics....
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there is some stuff I have my eye on, but its never wise to buy seasonal guidance 100%. I think I know why its doing that.
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