I am not saying they should be universally ignored at this range, but in this case, given that that trend reversal is counter to the steadfast European suite and the GFS op, I am okay disregarding...for now.
I think this season will have a stronger ending.....that was westerly QBO and stronger la nina.
Obviously the middle portion won't be as prolific down here.
Boxing day was a really good event...it was the perspective that jaded me on it. That Miller B came out of nowhere and I had my heart set on the deformation zone, but never imagined it would trend SO FAR west....
@WinterWolf@Ginx snewx@weatherwiz
Are you guys still planning on coming Saturday? Not trying to be a PIA, but there are a few folks who are on the edge and want to know if enough are coming to make it worth it.
I know Garth, Jerry and @ScituateWX (Brian) are in...
On a seasonal level, its a no-brainer that it will be RNA in the means, but the trick is pinning down when the periods of volatility will be. I have missed on that so far.
Don't get me wrong.....I'm not saying to expect 60" in a month, but it has that kind of upside if it isn't too transient and/or we get some luck. 2011 we had the NAO hand off to the PNA in order to protract a very favorable two week stretch to a month. You need breaks for that to happen.
But this isn't a shock...2010 was a great ENSO analog this season.