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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Preaching to the choir...I keep seeing posts on Twitter about how la nina is taking off and will def be moderate and top last year....isn't happening in terms of ONI. However, this season should be more nina like than last year, regardless.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theoretically speaking, yes.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most of those seasons were pretty good.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think most of this forum would sign up for 2007 with some blocking.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    DM is great to portray the mean aggregate of the cold season...the transitional nuances are reflected in the monthly breakdowns.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Patience...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, buy the November change...just a matter of how deeply into the month it takes. Won't be immediate because we need to build a cold supply.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting take...makes sense.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think sometimes he tries to overcompensate bc he knows he has kind of a reputation as Kevin with a PHD.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Should be ready early Novie...thought I would get more done than I have in Africa....but I have an 8 hour layover in Dubai on the way back, which should be fruitful.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting wrinkle this year. I feel good about a portion of the season that I feel like some may not...and I'm reasonably confident.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is the rub....state has a much better pension, which maxes at 80% of highest salary, but the pension has not cost of living escalators...its a give and take.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    More for folks further south. I have had one average or above snowfall season since 2014-2015.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know....killing me. I should be able to make game 4 of the WS.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    37.9/61 at home today...finally fall like. Spent the day around and actually a bit south of the equator.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's up now.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/#data
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    My mistake. I had a bunch of windows open at once and must have looked at the wrong data. I still don't feel its a very viable analog due to the strength of la nina.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks Larry. Is the MEI v2 database loading for you? Its only letting me get to the overview for some reason.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am not finding the weekly data here...maybe it has to do with the outage. Could someone please send the link directly to the data? Thanks.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but you just missed much better snows....most of the other composites would have you focusing on spring training.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you would take that over the alternatives amongst seasonal guidance lol
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jim, our conceptualization is pretty similar and I really like what you have done. Would you mind if I used some of your composites (IE La nina binned by intensity and placement) to save myself some leg work? I will of course cite anything that I use, but I just want to make sure that you are okay with it.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strong la nina with a very positive PNA? Not sure that is the best seasonal analog..
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks like 2007-2008 to me.
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