40/70 Benchmark

I'm plotting in my mind and going over the potential scenarios...I don't think I want a really cold winter because that sets the stage for you to snort lines off of the Atlantic while I plunge into the Merrimack. I think I want a very active N stream pattern with slightly above normal temps.

You have no idea how ruthless I am going to be when this finally reverses course.

I did that in 2007.

Been bone dry

God, this is what 2022, The Year of Bore, has come to....stealing one another's drought.

You don't think an inch and a half of rain makes a big difference compared to areas that received a few tenths?

Yea, that map is pretty course and doesn't cover the meso nuances....Brett got dumped on a couple of weeks ago. The rain has been just like the snow here....misses to the north and south.

Oh, I remember that...I had like 1' in Wilmington. That was a CJ band they got in Boxford.

What was that, a C/NNE deal?

1993-1994 was one of those seasons where I was either not close enough, or too close to the coast....lots of CJs and ORH county deals. But yea...the consistent cold preserved my 3" of glaciated slush, 5" of fluff oscillation.

That seems reasonable to me.

Yesterday and today were great....nice fall preview. Got some unexpected rain early this AM; I had taken the gauge in...will have to go by the station in Haverhill.

The 1993-1994 and 2013-2014 winters were similar to me in the sense that they were relatively disappointing for my specific locale. Snowfall was only like 20% above average at most, which is below what much of the other region had and there wasn't any large, defining event....overrated in my view. Its not a jackpot fetish thing, either because 2004-2005, 2014-2015 and 1995-1996 were all top notch in my book and I still lost to the south shore in every one of them. That said, I'd kill for 75" at this point....

Who is DW?

We will get a very healthy modoki el nino next year that will finally shake things up.

No surprise it looks like that considering we have been in like an 8 year la nina. We aren't dodging the warming, but we have been dodging the snow decrease...at least regionally speaking. I wouldn't count the shaft in my area.

I agree. My money is on tropical devastation.

I couldn't care less what happens in the desert SW....a UFO could land and alter the weather there and I wouldn't consider it.

If it were not for the blizzard, this would be challenging for the most boring weather year of my life...still may.

For me, its all about where you are relative to average...but I get it...sucks to have virtual shut outs within your climatological grasp. Not the case here. I think you guys will have a shot at a decent period this December.

I get it....I have been well below average every season since 2017-2018, while many spots around me have done well.

You got it.

One of Shweoegler's (RIP) fabled "backlashes"...

BTW, the government agencies/powers that be desperately need to stop generalizing ENSO events because as we have seen this summer, it not only wreaks havoc with winter forecasts, but tropical predictions, as well. You can not expect to make skillful seasonal forecasts without accurately portraying the nuances of ENSO. Modoki ENSO events have drastically different outcomes from the canonical counterparts during the cold and warm seasons....this relatively meager tropical season was predictable.

Yes, I agree with both of these points.....I could totally a see a meekly positive NAO and a more basin wide la nina ultimately. A basin wide la nina is definitely more of a -NAO risk....I will hash all of this out next week in a blogpost.