Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,408

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly think 1995 is a good analog to start the season...main difference being that the PNA may not be quite as robust...we'll see. That would be more of an issue for the MA in terms of snowfall, and mean that it probably wouldn't be as cold overall.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I buy it. Maybe time for subscriptions in a week or so.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, October and early Novie were very mild. Strange because I also anticipate a bit of a STJ presence this season, which is one peculiar trait for a la nina season that that year had.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This pattern reminds me of that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course Will remembers precisely how many leaves blew done throughout SNE in the event...I was just happy to be in the ballpark-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Does anyone remember that huge storm that buried Pittsburgh, PA and rained on us in Novie 1995? Then we had that mixed event later in the month and it never stopped snowing. That is what this storm reminds me of.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is always something that can go wrong in any setup, but on average there is more margin for error with a big NAO block than with a positive NAO.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I get it...just giving you a hard time. Even for me, enormous NAO blocks are a bit riskier.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Says the man that had a Feb '69 snow map for an avatar at one point. lol
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is actually a pretty good match, too...albeit it also stronger.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I actually listed last year as one of the best ENSO analogs in terms of placement of anomalies, but I agree this season will be weaker with respect to ONI. Of course, its much more couple than last season, so it probably won't "act" weaker... Bottom line is that season should "look" more like a la nina when all is said an done, despite being "weaker".
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup, same page.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm excited about the future in general, but not imminently intrigued by anything.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, sell. I mean, maybe you could talk me into giving a flying one if I lived at 1K in ORH county, but no chance were I am.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't really look at it because it wasn't technically a la nina, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have some value as a potential analog. I also don't really factor tropical activity in much...its an after thought.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I was mentioning Nina events that had very negative PDO, but yea, those seasons had some PNA, too.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I believe so...he said health dependent.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    It can be surprising sometimes...I actually forecasted a +PNA DEC....obviously the PDO and PNA are positively correlated, but not always. That vomit bucked of a 2011-2012 season actually had +PNA. And even when it is negative in the mean, there are more stochastic fluctuations that can allow us to cash in if they are timely. Of course, Jan 2011 had one such period. I know you are aware of all of this...just saying.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is a splendid illustration of the value of researching a winter outlook and formulating your own ideology with respect to the evolution of the season...you don't lose your mind waffling with seasonal guidance. You win some and lose some, but the losses are very educational.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will go to the grave swearing that Jan 2011 would not have been so epic if la nina were weaker....strong east based la nina and modoki el nino events are rare birds, and it's why seasons like 2010-2011, 1955-1956, 2002-2003 and 2009-10 are so exceptional. It's about the location of the forcing, and if it is well placed, then you want it to be a very prominent hemispheric driver.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not professional ones, anyway lol Those days are gone for me.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its okay... I'd like the PNA ridge a bit further east and the NAO ridge further west.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    The NAO and AO should at the very least not be significantly positive this season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of what does on with this next event, I feel good moving forward. Still won't be shocked to see plowable somewhere in SNE before Novie closes.
×
×
  • Create New...