40/70 Benchmark

I may need to spring into action with a dose of Narcan maps

I hadn't even thought of that...good call.

Well, I am speaking from a New England perspective....NYC is about there you may want to hope for the split lol..could go either way, there.

Big PV disruptions are higher stakes...higher risk, higher reward. What is modeled on the EPS is actually a safer, higher percentage play with a lower ceiling and higher floor.

Epically cold....not snowy. I don't want the polar vortex over my head....keep it around Hudson Bay. All set with January 2004 or December 1989.

The other day Judah was trying to tell me that December was going to be at least +3 in the NE because, like George, he is hyperventilating over the PV not doing back flips. I simply replied, "no it isn't". lol

What I also notice as a theme is that the vortex has been biased towards our side of the globe...you don't always need it shattered into 1000 pieces and flipped upside down, especially at our latitude.

LOL Get outta my head!

That is a good la nina look...cold north, mild south....

Harv had flurries Monday, which I think is reasonable.

That is what I was getting at, but you articulated it better.

Its refreshing to see things trends that way for once this early season...distances us from that 2011-2012/2001-2002 vide that had been building.

This is the reason Judah is a much better researcher than a forecaster, so don't fall into that trap.

You are reading way too much into that...its basin wide, as it has been all long. Its a bit east biased, sure, but not a huge deal...all ENSO regions into la nina territory. As far as December goes, you are pulling a Judah Cohen in that you are over reliant on the polar vortex in your quest to garner forecasting insight. Yes, the state of the vortex is correlated to our degree of winter weather, but its not an independent variable, like everything else in weather. This is the biggest mistake I see with respect to long range forecasting. We can still have a good winter month at our latitude with a reasonably potent vortex because there exists a plethora of other nuances to consider....ie, what is the orientation of the vortex and where is it placed? Is it ultra strong, as in seasons like 2011-2012, 2019-2020, or is it simply healthy? Its the latter this year and its been elongated and stretched onto our side of the globe. Is the cryosphere allowed to generate in Canada? If there is a cold source nearby, where are going to see a gradient pattern, and I think we will. December will end up fine for most of us.

CFS actually isn't warm here...must be decent reservoir of cold to the north by that point.

Congrats

The GFS has been the best model this fall.

The one about Idaho is true...that is the optimal ridge position on average.

Yea, I am still pretty confident that December will not suck...at the very least in New England, anyway.

Yea, I am not optimistic.

You will be good to go this year.

If we get to Wednesday and it looks good, then I will need to push the subscribe button....otherwise, I am holding firm to 12/1.

Looks great at H5! Famous last words...

I think we've had a surface nap all month long, despite some H5 excitement from time to time.

Its fine...if its still like this in a month, then worry.