40/70 Benchmark

The entire continent was devoid of cold in 2012...he doesn't what he is talking about. One of those people who reads an index and thinks that they have it all figured out.

No, it isn't.

This is very true.

I'm no expert....anyone could do what I do, but it's just so tedious that not many do. Look at all of the guidance...its all pretty emphatically indicating that the MJO gets pretty amplified in phase 7. As far as the polar domain...I think it will be while before the PV receives an crippling blows...like second half of winter. It will take some hits in the shorter term, but should prove fairly resilient. The EPO is def biggest concern and lowest confidence...I am on board with it being a recurrent issue this season and it will average positive...no doubt. But the key is to avoid a total black hole over AK like 2012, and eventually get help from the arctic. I think the answer is yes on both accounts.

I can honestly tell you that I expected SOME blocking this month, but I think that ship has sailed. That part is wrong IMO.....as the NAO will probably end up a bit more positive this month than I had thought...but I still expect a gradient pattern to materialize before the holidays with the cold source near by .....we do not need the blocking for that. My honest assessment.

If it showed a blizzard and Anthony had posted it, he would have been weenied mercilessly.

Second half of December had always looked better than the first to me.

So many garbage posts just whining relentlessly based of volatile long term guidance...this month never looked that cold. It was never supposed to be arctic. But I still think we get a nice stretch around the holidays and probably a few inches mid week.

The month never looked that cold.

Sell.

Glad I wasn't on all day.

Jerry, you are a very good friend. I'll never forget when you showed up to BWH when I had that serious accident years back . Cheers to a speedy recovery.

Well, the GEFS are pretty reasonable...its the OP that is gone wild.

Oh man...I hope everything is okay. Please keep us posted

Yea, I mean I pretty much followed them for my forecast.

That is pretty realistic...like GEFS

It's not, but he was referring to the trend towards all other guidance.

Well, it bisected Bermuda at 12z.

Figured. OP def too robust.

Gotta start to give it more weight it still does it at 12z tomorrow

Lol

Its probably going to go to crap, everyone will cancel the storm, then it will make a late come back to an advisory deal.

Yea, that is what I favor...solid advisory low end warning. The OP is overdone.

Cosgrove pimping 2007-2008 and 1976-1977 (big GOA vortex)....either one works for me.