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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensifies in October, but TBH, it never stops....
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfectly valid to think the winter will be awful...that may prove correct. All I meant was that fact RE the fall correlation to winter isn't debatable.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. Were said facts always weighted appropriately into the forecast? No, which is why some were misses.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    My forecast wasn't cold, it was near normal. Your thoughts and opinions are worthless when they run counter to facts, as are mine.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data. If you would like to argue that this winter will be well below normal in snowfall, feel free, but it won't be because of how mild October was.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Time has already told....the months of September and October don't mean anything with respect to winter, whether this season is mild or not.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe...I am still optimistic. I don't think this will be a terd of a season. I clearly will have some dents in the outlook, though, which is fine...just learn from it and collect another year of data to incorporate in the future.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that it was a mild fall, but its tough for me to connect the fall pattern to the early winter pattern when the month immediately preceding the change of seasons was pretty different.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. We'll see what happens...not worth sweating that range, anyway.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I agree....if I'm being truthful, I expected some bouts of PNA this month and it doesn't look to happen anytime soon. I also expected some NAO help, which is also a miss right now. However, I still expect improvement before holidays and suspect that January may end up a bit better than I had advertised with this delay.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not that it matters at day 45, but I didn't think it was brutal...I see what you mean about the EPO ridge collapsing, but a couple of caveats... 1) Signals at that extensive lead time can get muted. 2) The PV is really biased to our side of the globe just N of Hudson's Bay, though fairly stout...I think we'd have chances in that set up. I would take that look...its actually not that mild here.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It is maddening...I had a minimelt last night, but its only early Dec....some of the best seasons didn't do jack until after xmas, though that is a dangerous slope in a la nina.....most of the good ones are not late starters. However, I will say that last season is one of the better ENSO analogs, and it pulled off the late start. I think we will need help from the arctic, though because this one is much better coupled than last season, which acted more like a warm ENSO event.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I have a shot at 2"+ out here...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The UK bombed Portland, ME with 10"+ lol
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doubtful.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    November wasn't mild...I'm not sure what you are talking about.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I hit 60
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been a trend this year to have a fairly strong PV that is elongated onto our side of the globe. Not a pretty pattern, but it can get it done...kind if like the Pats' win tonight.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, even a delay in development inherently implies deamplification...regardless of whether it ultimately realizes said potential downstream.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It dampened at our longitude yea, but it does eventually consolidate...semantics, I guess. I know what you mean.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The thing is the entire deal will need to shift enough west to get the NS snows in here and I just do not see that at this range. If you notice, the shifts west don't do anything because the system is so diffuse back here that it doesn't bring heavier snow in. You need the entire cyclogen evolution to speed up by like 6-12 hours.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, tell Nova Scotia about the dampening lol
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    It didn't dampen, though...it just consolidates too late.
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