True....I guess I was speaking to the fact that EPO and NAO are more supported than PNA. I was also interpreting the se ridge as attributable to pretty strong RNA in the absence of a hostile arctic.
I think we are SOL on the RNA trough not digging as much...that is pretty supported by MJO 7-Nina. The other two could work...I could see a bit more EPO or NAO.
I think that storm just before xmas or xmas eve is a contendah to provide a white xmas for many....NAO or not. I get that the pattern isn't pretty yet, but it doesn't have to be pretty to grab a front end couple of inches that won't wash away.
@MJO812 That is a big NAO EAST on the GEFS and GEPS...big difference. That will not prevent cutters. EPS is still neutral, which I tend to favor through the new year.
No it isn't....EPO can provide some resistance and prompt a SWFE, but the mid levels would still fly west and maybe you get a triple point surface reflection to prevent torch. The EPO can provide an antecedent airmass.
Keep in mind that climo guidance will not pick op on any SSW activity, so should that happen as I think it may, it will be good well south of here later in Feb and into March.