40/70 Benchmark

There were also back to back events in early April to close the season out.

Gather round my weenie friends, one and all, for a good, ole fashioned holiday circle jerk under the mistletoe

If I lived in S Weymouth, I'd be planning a trip to Tahoe for the holidays...give poor Byrce the white xmas he deserves

12z GEFS are a little better for everyone...N, S E and W. Looks reasonable to me.

The analogy I like to think of is that since the OP is a higher resolution ensemble member, it is very sensitive to all of the "noise" that results from the vast chaos in the atmosphere at extended lead times. Thus while the lower resolution ensemble mean is more impervious to all of that noise and can therefore remain relatively stable. But higher resolution OP must endure that deafening noise and it is because of this that it is less adroit at making sense of everything as it swings wildly in an attempt to see the forest through the tress, so to speak. However, once inside of 72-96 hours or so, hearing everything is optimal.

To this point, the GEFS are actually a bit colder and snowier than the 06z suite lol Gotta ignore the OP for now because its so susceptible to the "noise" at this range.

I highly doubt my area gets nothing out of all of that with the cold that will be nearby....maybe a just a couple of inches on the front end, but total rainers is unlikely here.

Yea, the OES is what porked me....there were also a few interior events that hammered ORH, which I also missed out on. I was caught in the middle...I rained with the coast, but didn't get the OES.

Reality will be in between.

4 hours from UML to my mom's in west Wilmington.

I listed 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as the two best ENSO analogs in terms of structure.

This is the alternative mode of trolling now that guidance has caught on to what will actually transpire.

1955-1956 is another one...

The 06z GFS shows this well. Again, long shot...yes, but possible.

While perhaps not the favored outcome, you do realize that major Miller B cyclogenesis is still possible, correct? Take a look at the 1968-1969 season.....1970-1971, as well.

Holiday week, I'll take anything.

Sure....but with the plentiful supply of cold air in Canada will ensure that it will at least begin as snowfall....and if the cold is pervasive enough, the system could triple point to the coast and be predominately snowfall.

Naked KY sounding views Saturday?

Well, I went basically normal snowfall for NYC....don't get me wrong, I'm not calling for 1996 seasonal totals anywhere...but I think its going to be a departure from your typical nina snooze fest climo to close the season is what I mean. Should be some big cold shots and decent snow.

Waaaaay OT and ahead, but next year should be watched for a modoki el nino.

Partly my gut, but also based on a lot of researching analog years...... I think that PV is getting absolutely nuked beyond the mid way point of this season. Its going to be a wild second half...JMHO.

I feel like mid January will go to crap as we await the strat to lead the way for the second half.

My feeling on the first one is a SWFE that taints into CNE...just a guess.