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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Also, I will take this pattern now, rather than winter....all day, every day.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its brutal, but I take solace in considering it like a deposit in the weather karma bank.....you know this shit evens out over time, so we will get ours eventually....kind of the opposite of a 2015 like stretch when people like scooter are posting about how you should enjoy it because like will suck for decades to come.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even they must be bored to tears and checked of after these past several months....most boring year in weather history around here.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still below 1/2" on the month.....its like a continuation of the winter pattern.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just .22" IMBY yesterday....Stein lives.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is obnoxious if the recent flip in climo periods....I like how the temp and precip maps give you the option on which climo period you use....I like using the large 1951-2010 option because it provides an expansive and consistent baseline. But the H5 plots have all shifted to 1991-2020 and there is no option to change it. I hate that.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, agree RE December.....but we'll see.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but still a central player....I think it was always a fool's errand to focus efforts on any single predictor, anyway. Nothing operates in a vacuum.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    2010-2011 was a great ENSO analog last year, but this year, not so much. I agree NAO will average positive overall.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Complete agreement. Also, just starting to look in depth....this is a basin wide event with a westward lean...I would group this in the hybrid-basin wide bin and given the state of the subsurface, I do not see this going full tilt modoki.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Keep in mind that the majority of the easterly winds being west of 150W is primarily going to warm the western zones, since the subsurface is warm out there......its really just a narrow sliver within 3.4, right around 130-155W that we have the nexus of easterly winds and cool subsurface.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Blue is easterly on that map, correct?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its still early and I reserve the right to change my mind between now and issuance in early Novie, but right now I would say anywhere from -0.9 to -1.1, like last season, but a much faster demise.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am going to write up why I feel we are seeing this disparity amongst guidance because I think that there is a reason that dynamical guidance is weaker.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Most of the subsurface cool anomalies are located under the eastern regions, which is actually pretty warm right now.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. I'm not saying that I would rip and read its forecast, but I wouldn't entirely discount it, either.....I would blend it with some of the other guidance. Its not alone in doing this....its just the most extreme. Check out the difference between the dynamical guidance and statistical guidance....I think that is illuminating.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The potential implication would be a season that deviates from your prototypical "la nina" winter.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also think a lot of folks are overestimating ENSO this season....this thing is going to begin going in the other direction sooner than consensus IMHO.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone else notice how lackluster the ECMWF is with la nina, and how quickly it models its demise this winter? Has it at peak now, and weakens it to cool-neutral territory by December. It makes sense to me given what I read regarding the lack of connection between the IOD and late developing, or year long stagnant ENSO events.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not saying we are going to have a favorable Pacific from 12/1 to 3/31, but I think we will have some periods of PNA....like we did last season from January through March.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wife and kids will be in Uganda for another month, I'll ask them to send some serviceable waves along the train haha. Wow, had it been quiet...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early feelings are it will be relatively potent, but probably more of a modoki. I think the problem that plagues seasonal forecasts that incorporate ENSO is that they tend to generalize, and ENSO events can have pretty drastically different impacts around the hemisphere due to not only differences in strength, but the location of where the anomalies are focused.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its a defense mechanism.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice...good luck.
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