40/70 Benchmark

Congrats. You can keep that.

Yea, pretty wild frontal passage

62.4

I am wondering if 2002 may be a viable analog next year...just thinking aloud....

60 here.

Hopefully this is harbinger of the season to come.

Briefly hit 39.6 here, back to 39.0

Warm front is over Wilmington

Been saying all along....right when 12/08 kicked in big time.

Still just 39.4 here. Probably just going to get fake warmth when the front passes and inversion breaks.

White xmas is not that far fetched....doesn't take a KU.

35.1 and pouring

Reverse PNA....AKA negative

I already busted this month TBH...just how bad does it end up is the question. Hopefully we salvage the snow part of it.

I have bet against grinch from the start this season....I still think we get white xmas.

34.9 here.

That makes perfect sense.

Why do I care why how much snow the cog railway got? They were both like 10" above average for me with no real standout events...people speak about them as though they were epic, which is simply not the case for MBY. 1993-1994 was at least memorable...2013-2014 was not, aside from my dad dying right before the big, cold, dry March fail.

The warm up next week, but I don't think the cold lasts more than a couple of weeks, either.

Missed this...beat me to it.

Agree. Its transient.

Prob Jan 2015 was the last really snowy one.

The arctic certainly helps...it doesn't facilitate an epic pattern in and of itself, but it can render things serviceable in the shorter term. But to your point, I saw a post from Allan Huffman on twitter comparing the behavior of the MJO right now to 1994 and 1996 in that the MJO may ultimately die out after reaching phase 8, which may send us back to milder forcing regimes by about the second week of January. I do buy that...I don't think the colder transition is a happily ever after into weenie bliss. Its going to get warm again in January before any potential longer term changes take hold during the second half of the season.

The arctic actually looks better, though....cross polar flow...I'll bet it would be colder than the H5 composite implies.

12z GEFS look more like the EPS now with greater RNA and a more stout se ridge.