40/70 Benchmark

Not much to track, so we reminisce.... The wee hours of this morning represent the 30th anniversary of the first meteorological event that I ever pulled an all-nighter for in the landfall of Hurricane Andrew in south Florida. Even as an 11 year old, I couldn't fathom the scenes of destruction that came out of there and it took me decades to comprehend the gravity of what would have taken place had that storm made landfall about a mere 10 mi to the north, in downtown Miami. It will happen at some point.

Interesting to see 2020-2021 and 1970-1971 show up on Raindance's best match list, after I concluded today's blog post by highlighting those two years as the only basin-wide, moderate la nina seasons...I also like that they had a fairly high MEI, especially the former. One of the most gratifying aspects of seasonal forecasting is seeing two forecasters arrive at similar conclusions through different methodologies....almost akin to ensembles consensus, with the forcecaster of course being the ensemble member, and the methodology being the perturbation to initial conditions. I think that is the holy grail for forecast confidence. Should be a bit more festive this December.

.04" today after .22" yesterday.... .54" on the month....we drought.

I bought one last January...seems lethally accurate.

I pray.

Some of my latest thoughts on ENSO and where it may be headed. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/08/enso-intensity-and-structure-coming.html

Thanks, but useless for me since I need it for a several seasons within a composite that are not in consecutive order.

Oh, you are on the ECMWF site.....Copernicus only goes to NDJ.

My fall theme has been that Pacific is going to better than advertised by consensus.

Looks to me like a lot of mixed precip events, but pretty active.

How did you get DJF? I only see out to NDJ...

NDJ looks like and EPO/PNA orgy....probably connected to how quickly it kills la nina.

I just use percent to illustrate how far actual seasonal snowfall is from my forecast range.

I wanted to update my east-based la nina composite to add last season, but now using the 1991-2020 period makes it look washed out because some of the areas of higher heights are muted, and it enhances cooler areas. I don't know why they don't give you the option of selecting climo period like the temp/precip charts.

I think its both...technology has made it more readily apparent, and an overreliance upon said technology is exacerbating the issue.

Only so many promos for Typhoon Haiyan jackshacks in the Philippines on the next episode of Hurricane Man.

I saw a great post on FB from a group I am in that highlighted that semi permanent ULL that has become a fixture over the NE ATL this season...it keeps feeding dry air and SAL down that channel of cooler SSTs to the SW, into the MDR west of Africa. This creates a narrow window for development because they need to strong/resilient enough to survive that hostile e Atl envt, while remaining weak enough to not be veered towards the N ATL graveyard.

Won't go too OT, but I think we have reached the point of diminishing returns with respect to technological gains for society as whole because its become a conduit for impulsivity and an unhealthy proclivity towards instant gratification. This is corrosive for both cognitive and social skills.

One of these days we are gonna see viral footage of the chaserdude just hanging from the porch of that little cabin in Bay St Louis lol

A warmer climate alters everything; it has a radius of impact that effects a myriad of factors that reverberates throughout the entire globe. Its not a linear conception.

People automatically assume a warmer world means more tropical issues....yes, there is a higher ceiling, but that ceiling will not always be reached. Always remember that the earth is all about balance and while a warmer world means more latent energy from which to tap, there are also other potential barriers to tapping said energy to the maximum extent, such as what you referred to RE the HC, and also potentially increased wind shear due to more development downstream in the Pacific.

Shocker

Yea, that is how I interpret things...wall-to-wall sultry this week, but this weekend starts a bit of a regime change. Not to say summer is over by any stretch, but these respites should grow longer and more frequent moving forward.

It irks me how when me have a moribund tropical season like this, you don't hear a word out of the GW talking heads on the newscasts....but once we get a major LF, they will be right back on it. Don't get me wrong, I don't dispute it, before Tip violates me with the butt-end of his Hadley Cell.....but you know the type that like to use every natural disaster as a an indicator of climate change and just exaggerate the hell out of it.