40/70 Benchmark

31.8 and overcast Down from a hi of 32.4

There is some truth to that IMO.

If the regression fairies really want to be most proficient, we'll have a slew of 12/92, 1/03 and 3/01 like gradients. The coast needs to bend over for awhile.

Doesn't that say winter precip increased slightly over ne US?

You are always going to be able to find a 30 year period with somewhat less precip, which in and of itself is not attributed to global warming. What is the scientific rationale for it? Maybe for some regions of the globe, but not near the ne coast of the US.

BS .

I'd love a 2" snowfall over the holiday decor before it all goes to shit.

Our section of the globe is NOT getting drier...false.

I'm sure I'll get porked...just assume it, at this point.

It was a strong el nino, so my guess is there were some huggers. NYC really isn't comparable...I could see it happening there...they had like 7.8" in 2007-2008...I had like 80".

Maybe the outer cape and islands conceivably, but I'll strongly bet against it...don't forget, much of that warming is occuring at night, and there is also more moisture available. It will take a very long time if that ever happens...its not a linear progression.

Bradley had 35.2" that season. Lowest I see is 16.4" in 1979-80.

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime.

I have....I was about 50" above average that season....the six seasons since? Around 75" below in the aggregate.

I don't know.....Forky's smiley face composite was pretty compelling evidence otherwise....

That pattern does not suprise me in the least, I just didn't expect it in December.

Agree.

As it turns out, Pats will be playing that night...

As shitty as it looks right now, I am very confident that this winter will not suck for most of the region.

The most difficult aspect about a basin wide event, which this la nina is, though biased east of center, is distinguishing which elements of the modoki composite and east type composite that the season will assume.

Just a quick note for some of you guys bummed over the mild December. Many have noted that this la nina has continued to shifted eastward, at least as much, if not maybe a bit more so than I had expected. Consider this excerpt from my write up last month regarding how the month of December can evolve differently based upon ENSO type. There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences: Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006.

That's optimistic? One of those dudes who only sees the upper end of the range lol

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/12/light-snowfall-likely-wednesday-final.html

I still think that there will be a pretty good thaw later in January, but the month shouldn't be a total torch at this point.

Not surprising in the least that this season is featuring some periods like that. Good post, @forkyfork.