40/70 Benchmark

(goes to search twitter)

I will say that a lot of very negative PDO seasons can be dry across the US, but the PDO is not very highly correlated to our quadrant of the country.

That was a uniquely maddening season. I have always said, play that year out 99 more times, and we'd do better each and every time.

DJF looks pretty much the same.

52 actually...my bad. Late PM if I remember correctly.

+3F is pushing it down here, but anything less primarily impacts retention.

We are within 48 hours, I think...

Well, right....lol The point is that positive temp anomalies are less prohibitive to seasonal snowfall here than they are to the south.

Yea, our snowfall is more closely correlated to precip, than temps...different story for around NYC and points southward.

Wow...our weather usually mirrors one another, but not today...I torched at 58.6. I only hit 50 last Thursday.

The good news is that while some of the seasonal models look mild, none of them look dry. That is good ratter insurance IMO....the vast majority of our ratters are fairly dry, unless its a super el nino torch. I feel confident this will not be a ratter for the majority of SNE.

Agree.

Its okay to be frustrated with the fact that cutter after cutter keeps wrapping up west of us, but then the one system that looks timed right to provide significant snow gets sheared out. Its not a snow map thing...its just a "that sucks soggy ass" thing. Just like last December, when we couldn't buy a phase, then the Grinch phases like a Mo-fo when it would have been a light snowfall, otherwise.

Finally ordered a Stratus rain gage and it arrived yesterday....gonna put it into action for the new year.

It didn't look to me like there much that could be done at that point.

When the only post is on an inverted snow shower in NNE, you can guess.

I understand the frustration, but the winter solstice is not deep winter...its near the onset of the season.

Exactly. There are going to be periods like that this winter....that much has always been clear. I just didn't expect quite so much of that in December.

No pun intended, of course...

I get that it doesn't make much of a difference in terms of sensible weather over the next couple of weeks...it still sucks. But in the longer term this is a very important distinction from years like 2011 and 2019. There is a light at the end of the tunnel because there is a great deal of cold in Canada, its just all dumping out west right now. Once that RNA relaxes, it will get cold. November is also a testament to that difference...November 2011 was a complete torch....it was very seasonable this year, if not even a little chilly. In 2011, the cold was confined to AK.

Agreed.

Yea, I that is what scooter was getting at by saying that it was hostile beyond two weeks....you won't just flip it on like a switch...it will be gradual.

Trolling is funny from time to time...we all do it. But nearly every single one of your posts is inflammatory.

Yes. I mean, its nothing malicious or egregious....just not something you'd expect from a professional in the field acting as a moderator.