Early Season Evolving as Anticipated with First Snowfall Possible Late Sunday Night-Early Monday
Early Season Evolving as Anticipated with First Snowfall Possible Late Sunday Night-Early Monday
Thus far the latter portion of the autumn has been relatively well behaved in relation to the expectations of Eastern Mass Weather, as the residual positive temperature anomalies from one of the warmest months of October on record led to a fairly mild first half of November.
However, the anticipated slight weakening of the polar vortex in conjunction with a marginal abatement of the Pacific jet has indeed lead to the mid month cool down that extend through the balance of November.
Eastern Mass Weather November Forecast Composite:
Versus verification through the first 2/3 of the month:
The vortex will ultimately go through a period of recovery during the early portion of December, which will coincide with a period of milder weather once again to being the month, however, it is this mass flux throughout the polar domain that will also act as a catalyst for a potential winter storm early next week before any potential warm up arrives.
Although the weather for the holiday travel period will be relatively benign, it is the return commute to work on Monday morning that may potentially be in peril for some.
Potential Post Holiday Storm Monday
The primary issue with regard to the potential winter lion at the onset of the 2021-2022 season is just how quickly the transient NAO block and PNA ridge relinquish their respective holds.
A more rapid decay of the transient NAO block and/or PNA ridge will allow the two disparate pieces of
of energy moving east of the plains on Sunday to remain separate for a longer duration of time. This would result the systems phasing later, further to the east and higher and latitude, which would limit impacts primarily northern New England. However, a faster joining of the respective bundles of energy induced by a slower translation of by one or both of the aforementioned ridges would result in a faster phase lower in latitude, and a messy Monday morning commute for a large portion of southern New England.
The most likely solution is somewhat of a compromise with the majority of signifiant snows and delays relegated to north of the Mass turnpike, but undoubtedly a messy Monday morning throughout the entirety of the region.
Needless to say, stay tuned and the prudent course of action is to plan for delays Monday morning.
First Call Friday if necessary-
