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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well aside from maybe the fall of 2009, there are always factors that are, at least ostensibly, against a cold and/or snowy winter every year, and given that we have already established that this year doesn't have the ceiling of 2009....sounds about right.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, more of a risk of la nina were stronger.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wonder why these images self-destructed? I hate that....
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm going to sound like a broken record this fall, but this isn't going to be a climo-rip-and-read la nina winter. I am pretty confident of that. The atmosphere is getting out ahead of the ocean.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to that degree.....9 consecutive days of RECORD highs? They wouldn't be records
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    He was on the some obscure radio station this AM on my way into work...I was so giddy... I was like "STEIN"!!!!!. I wanted to call in for an autograph. The legend grows like his wisdom and he has no idea...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    You gotta wonder if we glean anything from this epic western heat ridge with respect to winter. I am of the opinion that its not meaningless.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know, but if you read the bio, it says Britain. He probably relocated for work, which is something most Mets need to do.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ Giacomo Masato on Twitter.. he's a met from Britain. It's his in house model.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hmmm...
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What it is trying to convey is the presence of a strong PAC jet because you have lower heights up by AK, owed to a very falt Aleutian ridge that is probably a function of a very intense la nina. Not happening.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    UK is too strong with la nina....tossed.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The French guidance is basically 2000-2001 with respect to ENSO, which is maybe why it does that? Very weak modiki la nina.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Then, there is the UK....
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure you are, but the question is, will mother nature be? lol
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think December will be as cold as the French guidance would imply, but I like the JMA idea of a some neg NAO with marginal cold. Coast could have issues early on....could be like a December 1996 transitioning to a January 2003 look before the fun period gets more widespread...with ultimately a relaxation later.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I mean about the 2010-2011 element....the guidance tries to pass the baton from a good Atlantic early on to a better Pacific in January.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    My theory all along has been for a blocky first half, or at least first third, and I see this emerging as a theme among guidance. The French suite is particularly weenie, but they all have at least some NAO east, to a degree, early on.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    French Kiss:
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I would just say it was a weak la nino and leave it at that because being N stream reliant is always a risk in weak el nino seasons. That is why you guys want them a bit more robust, like 1957, 1986, 2002 and 2009. Maybe the weaker STJ was exacerbated coming off of a triple deep la nina because the weak nino of 1977-1978 had a bit more of a STJ, but the main thing is you want a more moderate el nino. I think you will get that next year.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It could be similar just in the sense that 1976-1977 had a very diffuse STJ and was all N stream...that is why it sucked down there. That is a risk this year......that said, I def. would not use it as an analog, per se.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Early guess at December:
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bouchard was awful IMO.
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