40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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2020 dead ringer for QBO, too...those are my two primary QBO analogs. 2010 is one of 5 primary ENSO analogs.
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I've been looking at this alot on Friday and today...pretty clear theme IMO.
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Agree.
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He is awesome. I use his stuff alot in my work.
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I've resisted the urge to throw the central air on...couldn't bring myself to do it.
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Great post.
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I'd honestly rather take my chances with somewhat of a reversion back.
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More to it than that....what is the NAO doing, how close by and pervasive is cold source, etc. Its not going to be record RNA like last December. Its like calling for another blizzard of 78 every time a snowstorm is modeled.
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I don't even look until we fire the subscription up. Still long term mode for one more week, then vaca before I come back and flip to medium range.
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I could see a path to a 5th this year, but not a 6th.
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I still worry, but TBH, 4 consecutive years of well below normal has kind of inured me to the variation. I'm no longer waiting for the other shoe to drop.
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I think anyone inside of I 495, at least, should be rooting for some element of SE ridging this December....SWFE are how you get it done near the coast during normal seasons, nvm with these exotic positive SST anomalies this year.
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Nice N shore CJ spot
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Our very best months of December for a lot of SNE have some se ridging.
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Yes, I think early December backs off a bit.
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Typo lol
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I'll be 42. Kev just turned 50.
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Hope my Bday cruise to the Bahamas isn't ruined...yikes. Leaving Friday...
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He's okay medium range, but I don't think much of him as a seasonal forecaster
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No, there are patterns that are game over for everyone....at least SNE, anyway. That isn't one of then. You can tell Canada is cold. Take a look at a DM composite of 1973-1974, 1975-1976 and 2007-2008. Good example of an atrocious pattern on paper that ends up serviceable for NE and even very good in NNE.
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That is the silver bullet of seasonal foreacsting....we all know that ENSO isn't the only game in town, but figuring out all of those other nuanced forces that drive the MJO and overall Rosby wave train.
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Not on the entire forecast....that sensible weather composite is just one new tool I have tried this year. Everything else looks good.
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Not sure what I am going to do yet....if December doesn't look bad, I may just tweak it.
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This is what the CFS looked like on 10/17
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