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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The polar domain should get a bit less hostile later in December, but any major disruption is well over a month away and perhaps closer to two+ months away. We should do fine later this month,,,especially northern half of region. If there is a "blizzard" type of event this year, best shot is early March....with perhaps a smaller secondary maxima of potential early Jan before warmer interlude again establishes.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that next on the 6th is a lost cause. I will do a write up this wknd.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not worried at all.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    GFS OP is an error with the very warm look of late....its totally at odds with tropical forcing, for which we have a very good consensus. The fairly mild interlude that we will have mid month belies the true overall tenor of this month.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I will do okay with that, but you should clean up before we melt for a while thereafter.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its possible to have a decent winter without several severely crippling and debilitating blizzards.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can already hear the people like Luke who are going to be skeptical that it will be pushed back, but I really do not think so. That is for real IMHO. I also think it will end up back there again at some point after the New Year, but that is another discussion.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can see the beginning of the end of the milder pattern at the end of the EPS on 12/17 with the Aleutian ridging en route to AK, as that vortex finally shifts eastward..my first look at guidance this season, and it looks right on cue to get very wintery before the holidays.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That EURO run was brutal for me...20" over the next 10 days like 60 mi to my north, and like 4" here.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very tall hills.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not bad...I'm doing $25 monthly for wxbell, which has really good graphics IMO...and getting business package from F5 for Dec through March for only $25 total (not monthly), as have worked out an arrangement with some of the guys here.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense...only reason I do not do yearly is because I have close to zero interest in mid latitude weather during the summer....my attention shifts to the tropics and I get everything I need in that respect from the free packages.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    We just had a rat two years ago.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Especially you guys, but it can be the highest percentage pattern from around Boston points north.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    @MJO812@RUNNAWAYICEBERG and @HIPPYVALLEY check PMs
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    With any luck at all, yea.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2018 actually proked us and got the mid atl.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this speaks to what I was saying to Luke about climo...it is a winter month, but for SNE, the season is still ramping up.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly this. Its not a textbook winter pattern, but you can't just look at a table of indexes and make assumptions...you need to glean insight from the hemispheric nuances and such. This is not a slam dunk-skunk, and can actually be rather snowy for a lot of us.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is all I am saying....not that a great December is a slam dunk. I feel like it will be good for at least most of us, but obviously I could be off..... I just don't see how anyone can be confident either way right now.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Unless you are fortunate enough to have a perfect pattern with ideal placement of +PP, the route to a plentiful December in terms of snowfall for coastal SNE is positive AO/NAO with a plentiful supply of cold in Canada. Not to say there isn't risk involved with that, but there is more risk for the coast with early season coastals IMHO. The 12/5/2003 events are not that common.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2007 was like that...whopper of a +polar domain, but it was biased towards us. Obviously we got lucky getting record snows out of it...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is exactly why I am not sure why people are jumping off of cliffs with respect to December right now. Obviously it doesn't look like it will be an epic pattern in a prototypical sense, but the punt conversation is stilly.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean the whole season...I just mean that period as currently modeled verbatim.
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