40/70 Benchmark

I mean, it grew a bit...but not enough to bother with.

We'll be good in December.

Relative to August, the grass grows slowly....try to wrap your melon around that...wild, I know.

I'm sure you'll take the trade off when I'm 33.1 with white rain, and you're 32 with slick roads

Everything is toast here in the lowlands.

No, sunlight continued to decrease. Funny how that works.

None...hardly grew.

23.4 on the dot two consecutive mornings now.

Yes.

Yea, I had that year, too...more for the early season than late.

Doesn't really matter to me, as the utility for me is mostly the active finish.

Really? I'll have to read up on it...

Yea, I like 83-84, too.

Yea, I don't even now what AAM and mountain torques are. Lots to learn still.

I will delve into the Indian ocean at some point...was going to so it for this year, but didn't up doing it with Africa and everything. Maybe next year...

Yea, take the under on that lol, but this will not be last season. You should make a run at 100", anyway...

70-71 is a good analog.

Yea, I printed all of the seasonal totals for my 15 forecast locales yesterday on the Cornell site...use "the wet season" April-October.

@OHweatherYes, decent blocking potential in latter Novie and December, then again late in Feb into March. I feel while the December blocking is higher confidence, March has the greater ceiling. I don't expect anything epic in December and I am betting against an early seaso. SSW, though I agree the PV will take some shots.

Likewise. You coming the 20th?

Jim, your final thoughts out later this month?

That, along with 2000-2001 and 2005-2006 are my main analogs.

Yea, missed the N plains last year, but did well otherwise. The main reason I have that warm January and somewhat cooler Feb evolution this year is because alot of my analogs had a bit more PNA and less hostile arctic in February after the pattern really bottoms out in January. It's also due to the fact that I think the PV takes a pretty big hit early in Feb or maybe even the tail end of Jan. If it waits until March, or does not happen, then my second half will be off. As far as the mean DJF, I don't think there will be many voices of dissent with respect to that this fall...its essentially a la nina/E QBO look. As far as it being "dulled", it is like that for a reason. I don't see much support for exotically warm DJFM departures in the mid atl and NE....maybe the SE. I guess DJF maybe a bit easier to get a warmer composite since we both expect March to be cold. That maybe part of the reason why your map is +3 or greater and mine is +3 and under.

What a beautiful song Steve. Agreed. The biggest difference between me from my mid 30s ownward and the younger version is that I have the perspective not to take every th ing and everyone for granted. I've learned gratitude after everything that I've been through and I hit the lottery to be where I am today.

I dread that.