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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Its tough to know for certain....the coupling often decays as the season evolves anyway, and always has. But I do agree that it is mitigating ENSO to a degree...that makes sense to me. Its just tough to determine when exactly to attribute that because external forcing sources have always intervened at times.
  2. I do not debate the merits of what you are saying at all.....I just don't feel it has negated ENSO altogether, and I know you didn't suggest that. I do think it can with meager events, but not so much in strongly coupled events such as this.
  3. I'd take 2001-2001, 2011-2012 and 2019-2020 consecutively if it would bring substance to your posts.
  4. In December, same here...despite current modeling, I think I will ultimately do okay with that look.
  5. John, despite any mitigating impact that HC expansion may have, I don't think that there is any doubt that this cold ENSO event is having its presence felt in the atmosphere. I agree RE last year's event, but this one, albeit rather paltry in terms of ONI, is very well coupled.
  6. Longer range has been volatile. I'm not sure how you can cancel a month before it has began.
  7. Its November. Sometimes I question whether your degree is just a bunch paragraphs.
  8. Yea, anything prior to the period from about the 10-14th is gravy to me.
  9. Its not really a warm pattern...just need some luck with all of the cold dumping out west, and we aren't getting it as modeled quite yet. Reminds me of 20018-2019 a bit.
  10. I use F5 weather for euro narcan maps and mostly wxbell for evrything else. I forget rates...will tell you tmw.
  11. Looks like a made the right call resisting temptation to begin model subscriptions prior to 12/1.
  12. Yea, IVTs are not rare in the literal sense, they just rarely produce anything of consequence at a given locale.
  13. I am confident that I will be above average.....but if not, then four consecutive sub par seasons is rarified air.
  14. Yea, all I was getting at...he just needs a competent QB to competitive and I am confident he has that. But like I said, SB is another story and up for debate. I'm getting there....
  15. My 20s and early 30s should have killed me....quite literally.
  16. I have seen enough to know that they aren't going to be a doormat anytime soon. SB caliber...fair question.
  17. Well, give me 25 years and maybe I will feel differently...but I like my life right now much better....minus the loss of parent.
  18. My current 3 year stretch is pretty comparable. Roughly... 2018-2019 47" 2019-2020 33" 2020-2021 51"
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