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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I wasn't trying to imply that that is why its expanding....that is a separate matter, agreed. All I mean was that its the convection that rises and gives off the heat flux, that induces sinking motion to the north.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is true...I guess the fact that the shit interlude comes earlier this month biased my view.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    ICON model blows....nearly totally lost the event lol.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty sure that any heat flux from the tropics contributes to Hadley Cell arrangement at least indirectly. I wasn't trying to say that its expanding because of the convection....
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, but this month isn't going to be as prolific as 12/07 because the pattern will be interrupted with that mild stretch after this event.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's how you get your favorite phenomenon....the ever expanding Hadley Cell.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MJO wave down under send forecasts a blunder?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    By the holidays.... Weenies rising
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did I miss this gem
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will trend north, but I still think north of the pike is in great shape for plowable...probably down to I84, but its gets tenuous there.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'll sell the 8-12" n of the pike on the 00z EURO....I think that is a bit generous. Possible, but that is the upper bounds of the envelop. Will do First Call tomorrow.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went up to the top of one of those peaks on my honeymoon in 2018...no joke....like 12K.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    If I actually cared about such things, then I would have to dub this a pretty good severe year for SNE...at least by our standards.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think this one will be.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I PMed him last week...read it, but did not reply. May just be going through some stuff...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did the CFS do in Novie? Anyone had that handy?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Composite did very well in October and November....too bad that part isn't graded. Now watch me whiff on winter lol November forecast composite was about perfect in the east...only flaw was that it didn't really capture the lower heights that persisted near AK very well. The active PAC jet shifted the core of the warmth north of where I had it the west, buried in the SW.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chrome warns on everything ....PIA. Poor Bruce never did make it back. Hit 52 here.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this month should end up like that, but probably not as cold....better shot of a larger event in early January.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think one thing I should have hit harder in my outlook was the reprieve in the first half of Dec....I was honestly thinking that may take place more earlier than mid, but I inadvertently glossed over it. If I had to verbalize a concern now, it would be that my timeline may be a bit fast....ie favorable period taking place later in Dec and riding more in January than I had advertised. But lets see what happens.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think what I was right about is that we are still going to get a slew of modest to moderate SWFE this month and maybe some redevelopers....we aren't getting skunked because there is so much cold over Canada, and the PV is elongated onto our side of the globe....while it is stout, it is not a 2011 death star. The polar domain should be less hostile than 12/2007 and maybe a bit more hostile than 2008 or comparable.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I think it will later in the season, but looks to be admittedly a bit less blocky than I had thought for December. Probably worse for the tri state region than us....Dec 1970 was one of the snowier months of December on record here, so it will def probably be somewhat less snowy than that this month with a more hostile arctic.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was one of my analogs....def some parallels with the big negative PDO and okay arctic.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I doubt anyone from I84 on up gets completely shut out.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be pretty surprised if that one doesn't work out for a few inches from around the pike in and N in MA.
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