40/70 Benchmark

Please let me know if you guys like the new format, as it seemed the other way was just too tedious and time consuming for both myself as well as the reader.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots. The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired. Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did.

I think it maybe a bit too cold in December and especially January, but like it otherwise.

Is this KA''s outlook, Howard? Tom will be posting within the next few days.

It really is in an incredible resource with some gifted minds. I am humbled by the exchange of information each and every season. The fact that someone like myself, who has been math and science deficient my whole life, can compose a coherent winter outlook is largely a credit to these forums.

2" was one of the lower totals, but I will take that on 10/30.

Not sure ACE is done for the season.

I used that piece extensively in my outlook. I have this season as mixed, but a tad east of totally neutral.

I think strong ONI peak is pretty questionable...weekly data, sure.

Canadian is also the most central-based of all guidance, IMO...so that makes sense that it would support the southern PAC ridge.

Only one I would hate is 1999.

@griteater No coincidence that most of the N PAC ridge composite winters are ep la nina seasons...and most S PAC members are co la nina seasons.

I hate to be redundant, but 2007 represents a great compromise both with respect to the ep vs cp la nina continuum, as well as the N PAC ridge vs S PAC ridge composites.

I agree. I don't buy the N Pac ridge composite, however, I don't think it's going to be as flat as some the eastern US terds, like 2011, either.

I second this....incredibly informative. Still trying to wrap my mind around the QBO stuff.

Kevin, I am unable to make a new entry for some reason. I have done so in the past, but I am just not seeing anything with a new entry option....

The mean of the ECMWF Nino 4 ENSO plume is about -1.3.. I don't see it getting lower than that.

That is a bit dated, so perhaps its changed. I don't have an issue with region 4 getting to -1...that is not much of a jump.

@andyhb

I don't think region 4 is going to cool much more.

Someone prep the sig....

I was going to suggest this. Def.

No. 1999-2000.