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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That to me implies that you even with the N PAC ridging positioned well, you still need an NAO. I don't like the odds of that. I may be able to get away with it...but most won't.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't view this post as good news.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx....do you have any stats to support that the QBO trend is as important as the state? Not doubting it, but just wondering.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your analogs are like mine...feast or famine snowfall around this area. I would take 2007-2008 in a heartbeat. Sign me up....like 90" here with a steep gradient to the south. I doubt it will be as active as that season, as NNE through Montreal and Quebec had like 5' of snowpack all winter.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't a "block", per se....but we did time some NAO assist very well for the 1/11 blizzard. Not sure about latter January. @Ginx snewx can tell you all about transient NAO assist haha He loves it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this research? +QBO in cool ENSO seasons favoring more N PAC ridging....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow....GREAT stuff. Food for thought, and it makes sense in that we use the QBO as a predictor for the polar fields, however, I have aways known the +QBO to favor less blocking (+NAO/AO). But, if it were to favor more N PAC blocking during la nina seasons, then that could change things. Only thing with 2010-2011 is that we also had some NAO assist. Interesting... The question I have is why is the dataset limited to la nina seasons following el nino seasons?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, unless something changes, not a good look for you guys....even our better years from that composite still sucked for you. But hey....its not my final call, and the way my last two outlooks have done, it will be good new for you guys if it does end up being my final call.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some thoughts on my end....not too dissimilar from the prevailing thoughts expressed here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree about this becoming a more modoki event...just blogging about that now, actually. Of course, a modoki la nina is the inverse Hadley cell configuration of el nino modoki....bad news bears for the east. Great for the west...specially NW.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think region 1.2 warming is another bad sign for the east should that continue.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. This weak la nina doesn't look as good for the ne as many have, though. Agree with a lot of what has been said in here, unfortunately.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    66.2 on the station at home...love it.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 is actually one my favorite seasons inn a sneaky way.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was up there with 4-1-97 for me...absolutely, positively #epic.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That event may be Methuen's #1....Feb 1969 was more, but longer duration.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.
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