40/70 Benchmark

There is also a recency bias given that the last two vaunted meager warm ENSO events were let downs for the northeast....you need not look back very far to find meek warm ENSO events that were accompanied by mutant snows in the NE.

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect on warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events. I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.

Looks like either cool neutral of weak la nina incoming....I wouldn't assume a mild winter yet at this point. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/la-nina-wach-in-effect-for-winter-2020.html

I did that to undermine the media that is catastrophizing it....that is the tangible impact...nice sunsets. Be safe, all.

8.3

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

2017-2018 is actually one my favorite seasons inn a sneaky way.

That was up there with 4-1-97 for me...absolutely, positively #epic.

That event may be Methuen's #1....Feb 1969 was more, but longer duration.

I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

I wasn't suprised at all.

@raindancewx Thanks alot for the awesome data updates....very much appreciated. Tough to keep up as much this fall with a newborn. I remember looking at how paltry the ECMWF was with the ENSO peak last year and Isummarily dismissed it, which I seldom do. I was waiting to include it in my last blog update, but ended up leaving it out. Lol

He just means relative to fall sensible weather.

Shift last season a bit se, and it would have been good. It has incorrectly gotten associated with some pretty awful seasons by people staring at the KBOS seasonal total on an excel file....but it really was not like those years. Don't get me wrong..consensus forecast of banner year bombed, but it was not an awful pattern...more a serviceable pattern during which southern New England was snake bitten.

February 2007, 1995 and 2010 are all patterns that I would take another roll of the dice with, though.

I'd keep an eye on the MEI....it was +.30 as of AS value. SO should be higher.

Don't completely agree...

I def. agree with the translation eastward of the developing el nino...much like last year. That is that main difference between this season and 2014..el nino is developing a bit later and is working from west to east, whereas that year it was east to west. Otherwise, 2014 is a good ENSO analog.

2004 and 1976 were pretty epic in SNE, too. I would agree that this isn't a clear-cut blockbuster season, though.

No one is calling for a snowmageddon in New England, but I don't see any awful signs is the point.

Thanks for the great info, raindance, as always. 2004 and 2014 are two modokis I do not mind mirroring.