On a seasonal level, its a no-brainer that it will be RNA in the means, but the trick is pinning down when the periods of volatility will be. I have missed on that so far.
Don't get me wrong.....I'm not saying to expect 60" in a month, but it has that kind of upside if it isn't too transient and/or we get some luck. 2011 we had the NAO hand off to the PNA in order to protract a very favorable two week stretch to a month. You need breaks for that to happen.
But this isn't a shock...2010 was a great ENSO analog this season.
That is why the block is key....the flow is no longer progressive and shearing. People often speak of blocking within the context of its impact on track, and rightly so, but its more than that.
Okay.
Yea, def agree regarding no lock...I guess I got the wrong idea. I saw someone mentioned delusional and assumed they were referencing your sentiment.
Scott, maybe odds are still against it at this point, but I'm not sure why you are acting as though the notion of a xmas storm is delusional.
It is not.
I understand it if you are wired that way....don't argue with the importance of sleep and it makes total sense. I am just a night person...can't sleep early, but I do take naps.
Late bloomer just outside BM.
Aside from the range....yea, yea...I get it...that is totally fair game. Not skeptical at all....I know it gets better, thereafter, but that block is trending faster to develop.
My bucket list is to chase in Sierra, LES and cane....part of me wanted to shoot out there for this w the family gone right now, but my time off from work is low after Africa.