40/70 Benchmark

Yea, which I am fine with. No sign of it making it up in 3.4.

I have been saying this all fall....two things are vastly overstated with respect to the ensuing cold season: 1: La nina 2: -PNA Ben Knol had another Tweet with that dumb weight lifting emoji talking about how strong la nina is getting....I pointed out that he has been saying this ALL fall and back to late summer, yet the ONI is UP four consecutive months and counting. I pointed out how useless his comparisons are stating out how strong this current event is relative to climo....."only events stronger at this point are 1998 and 1999", blan, blah", when this event is nothing like those because it is and has been STAGNANT. Its residual, unlike those events, which were flourishing. Crickets. He reminds me of JB, just in the other direction....just looking for clicks, or something...

It has like 40* for my low, which NBD...I have already been in the 30s a few times.

Friday

21SEP2022 19.7-1.0 24.1-0.8 25.8-0.9 27.7-1.0 28SEP2022 19.0-1.7 23.9-1.0 25.8-0.8 27.6-1.1 The new weekly number is up a tick again.....this event actually has somewhat of an eastward lean now.

I assumed he must have meant for the month of October...

All I have heard about from OCMs is how the strongest cold front of the season is coming through on Friday, but it doesn't look impressive on the P&C....this past weekend was cooler.

Its been refreshing to actually have a real fall for once.

I don't know. Haven't looked. It wouldn't suprise me since September and October look to end up fairly cool.

Looks reasonable

Not you. The people on Twitter.

I have tried to clear the air with @raindancewx a few times, but to no avail. I don't care for all of the vitriol and it detracts from the quality of threads, as others have pointed out. The fact of the matter is that I feel is though he is probably a better forecaster than I am and is also most likely more intelligent, as well. The guy clearly has a background in the sciences and is very impressive. But that doesn't mean that he still couldn't learn something from me if he would stop attacking me and pry open his mind even just a crack. I will never claim to be the brightest guy in the room, and am not here to engage in pissing contests. I do the best that I can and try to add to the greater body of knowledge studying one of the greater passions of my life. End of story-

Twisted? The December forecast was wrong...it was pretty clear. I never stated otherwise.

Most outlooks will be out over the next month, anyway....mine will be out in about a month and Raindance in like a week.

Yea, I'm sorry about that. I allowed him to hijack the thread.

I not trying to validate my ego, he is. I'm merely trying to validate my integrity and establish fact from fiction. No surer sign of an ego in distress than the need to spend time seeking validation via the invalidation of others.

Hopefully it will actually appreciably strengthen at some point soon because otherwise my idea of moderate is in trouble.

We've been hearing this for months....how many tweets have you posted about how strong la nina was getting all summer long?? Yet, over yonder....in reality, the ONI has risen four consecutive months.

@snowman19's buddy Ben Noll isn't too convinced of modoki....

4.34" RF on the month...

I guess this first post is what he is referring to. First of all, this is nothing more than conjecture...as the title suggests. Its just open dialogue and not at all a forecast. This is when a I began to actually look at data and develop an informed opinion, which is my first blog post on the season. Everything before this point was just me talking out of my rear while being immersed in fantasy baseball. Again, during the winter I only concentrate on snow threats and then I take the spring off and look at nothing. Why on earth he takes open chatter amongst friends as a forecast is beyond me. This is why I have a blog, in order to distinguish between organized and informed meteorological insight from simple chatter. But he has already admitted that he doesn't look at the blog, so he wouldn't know that.

Perfect example of a write up ripping myself for an awful forecast.....no clue where this crap comes from. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/05/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html You want to say my stuff is garbage, that is okay with me...this is just a hobby and I do the best that I can. But don't tell me that I am dishonest about the results.

Here is the link to all of my blog posts....by all means, find me an entry advocating for el nino. https://www.blogger.com/blog/posts/2820149554058213224 Again, I wagered a complete guess in mid March based upon nothing at all except for the fact that we were coming off of two consecutive la nina events. I hadn't researched anything...which is why I said el nino at that time. Its not my fault you eat Thanksgiving dinner by yourself coming up with esoteric correlations to support snow in New Mexico that no one else on god's green earth gives a flying fart about.

Where does this say el nino, you miserable, socially inept troll? https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/06/la-nina-advisory-remains-in-place.html JUN 23 La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June La Nina Advisory Remains in Place Through June Third Consecutive La Nina for Boreal Winter 2022-2023 Far From Certain; El Nino Very Unlikely On the heels of two consecutive moderate la nina events, the June 2022 update from the International Research Institute continues the seemingly interminable cold ENSO event into spring 2023. As illustrated in the graphic above, the consensus is essentially split between a weak la nina event and a cold ENSO neutral season. This implies that the former is more likely early on in the winter season, and the latter later into the season. Guidance is firm that while another moderate la nina event is unlikely, it is also becoming increasingly improbably that we see a complete phase shift to an el nino for the coming winter, the likelihood of which is currently being assessed as just 6-8% by the IRI as of June 20. This conclusion is also supported by climatology. Spring Recovery & Current Intensity of La Nina Renders an El Nino Exceedingly Unlikely for Winter 2022-2023 When Considering Potential Pacific Analogs The MAM ONI value was calculated at -1.1, which is up from the FMA value of -1.0. Since 1950, the only two seasons to go on to qualify as an official el nino by current CPC standards during the subsequent cold seasons following a MAM ONI of -0.5 or lower are 1976 and 2018...both peaked as marginal la nina events at a mere -0.5 MAM ONI value, which is much lower than the current -1.1 reading. Furthermore, each of the aforementioned seasons peaked at +0.9 ONI, which extrapolated onto this season only yields a peak ONI of +0.3, which is warm neutral. Additionally, the recovery of the ONI value back down to -1.1 as of MAM was referenced earlier, which also casts doubt on the notion that our run of cold ENSO is coming to an end. The only two la nina seasons since 1950 to feature a re-intensification of la nina during the spring are 1975, which also came on the heels of two consecutive la nina events, and 1955. Both seasons went onto register official la nina events during the following winter season. In fact, the latter season ended up being the strongest Pacific analog for a myriad of different reasons throughout this past cold season. Namely, it was the only other la nina event as powerful as the one this past season that was biased as far to the east. It also featured the most extreme December RNA (-2.07) until this past December, which set the record with a value of -2.56. Indeed, there may be value to be gleaned from considering not only the behavior of the tropical pacific during potential ENSO analogs, but also during Pacific analogs in general. Using Behavior of ENSO Following Past Extreme RNA Months of December to Analogs In addition to this past December, the other extreme -PDO Decembers are 1955, as already mentioned, 1964, 2008 and 2010. In order to register an official el nino by CPC standards during the next cold season, there would need to be an observed recovery as drastic as 2009, on the heels of the extreme 12/2008 PDO, which recovered from a MAM 2009 ONI of -0.3 to +1.6 in NDJ. This extreme of a reversal in the equatorial Pacific would extrapolate back up to a peak of +0.8 ONI for the cold season, which would meet the criteria for an official weak el nino designation. However, the subsurface, while supportive of enough of a recovery to avoid a third consecutive la nina, is not conducive to the drastic recovery necessary to register an el nino peak next winter. The average temperature anomaly throughout the upper 300 meters of the ocean between 100 and 180 degrees longitude over the tropical Pacific, which encompasses from ENSO region 3 to 4, is a mere -.10C for the month of May 2022 and has been slowly propagating above the 100 meter level and rather aggressively eastward into the main ENSO region of 3.4. This compares to an average subsurface reading of +.87C for the same region in May of 2009. While this is in agreement with current guidance and climatology that ENSO neutral conditions remain a viable outcome given the slight upwelling and considerable advance of positive subsurface anomalies eastward throughout the main ENSO region, it is not at all suggestive of the notion that an el nino for boreal winter 2022-2023 is a realistic possibility. A conclusion that is also in accordance with the consensus derived from both guidance and climatology. Finally, although subsurface data is not available for May 1956 of 1965, since it has only been recorded since 1979, the value May 2011 subsurface value following the extreme RNA December of 2010 was recorded as +.47C, which is also significantly warmer than the May 2022 value of -.10c. The OND 2011 peak ONI value still registered as a la nina at -1.1C, which as a far cry from el nino. Thus in conclusion, the early consensus when considering both guidance, as well as climatological considerations with respect to both the current state of the subsurface and surface of the equatorial Pacific is for either weak la nina or ENSO neutral conditions for boreal winter 2022-2023. More on what that may entail regarding sensible weather conditions across the eastern US later on this summer and throughout the autumn.

If you don't read the blog, than how in the hell do you know what I said? I explicitly mentioned that I favored cool ENSO in my only June post. You make shit up. What a lonely, miserable soul...go count your money by yourself in your basement.