40/70 Benchmark

Great pattern for it to begin September...cold locked by the pole while we roast.

You would be shocked how many knowledgeable people in weather circles just can't grasp that...it drives me nuts...especially on social media. They just stare at the daily departures and get all worked up.

What is meant is it's not acting like other events that ultimately peaked as super events...not that it is already that intense.

I think like 957mb

Hopefully by December.

Sox are about what I thought they were.

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH). My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included. FINAL GRADE: A https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

Anecdotally speaking, I am glad September looks warm.

Gonna go right over the my old stomping grounds of Paris Island.

Yes, I noticed and wasn't sure what to make of it.

Snowman, all joking aside, I bet anything that if you start presenting some data in support of perspectives that differ from that of your own, then people will give you a lot less shit. You gain credibility and are viewed as objective, unbiased and less inflammatory. It goes both ways...we have posters that only post info in support of snow and cold and they get buns tossed at them. There is plenty of data in support of a mild winter, but its important to look for "what could go wrong" to keep yourself honest/objective and your work exhaustive. But you def. know your stuff.

Yea, and that is probably what happens over the winter....we will get at least one solid month of snowman19 forcing....but the hope is that its not the vast majority of the winter.

Well, if you had also been posting it over the course of the summer, then no one would. ; )

I mean, it fluctuates to a degree during every season...this is why we look at the seasonal mean. ENSO never entirely drives the bus over 100% of any given year.

Finally starting to act more like a canonical EP el nino, right as the sst anomalies become more basinwide.

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

There was a possibility.

Yes, I thought of that one when I typed that. I should have specified wind.

This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst.

We take-

Yea, that fluctuation over the past couple of hours will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.

TWC has a crew there.