Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is a school of thought that the WV from the volcanic eruption will induce a strong PV this season, so its important to keep a close vigil on it starting in November....the early returns are confirming what I have already suspected to be the case.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    He bailed on last winter in mid December.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another thing about the +IOD...if you are going to entertain the warm proclivity of +IOD seasons, then I'm not sure how you can disregard the reduced tendency for the NE to get porked precipitation wise....most of the years that screwed the NE and were dry were -IOD. If you are going to use the IOD, then it needs to be incorporated without bias and partiality to context. Like I said, it makes sense to me because it only confirms what I had already figured with respect to temps due to the -PDO.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. That-
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I interpret that the same way I do the -PDO...less likely we see a cold winter, but doesn't mean a torch, as you can see by the composite analogs....sign me up for 1963, 1977 and 1986...goes along with my theme of the polar domain being the deciding factor.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Social media is filled with them...then they project the ostracism that comes from a preoccupation with winter onto everyone else within the circle.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its funny how we joke about the snowfall dependence as a mental illness, but I would honestly be more compelled to clinically assess those who feel the need to incessantly fend off potential disappointment with the expectation of a negative outcome. That to me is indicative of the most severe dependency of all.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    2015-2016 was pretty close to being a ratter here...borderline. But other than that, I have managed to dodge a true ratter since 2011-2012, however, I have had 5 consecutive and 8/9 subpar seasons since 2015. But that is how my area is relative to most of SNE...less variance. I tend to be just far enough north to get porked in huge years, and pull out some NNE scraps to narrowly avoid ratters.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have to me a concerted effort to engage in other outlets in order to maintain sound MH in a winter like last year, don't get me wrong lol
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    For a variety of reasons lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just because folks only engage here to any great extent when it snows doesn't mean they sit in a corner trembling and urinating themselves the other 9 months.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think they are connected.....modoki events are more favorable for blocking, and canonical less so.....I think basin wide events are more prone to extratropical forcing.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Total agreement. I think that has to do with @Typhoon Tip's working theory about CC making the globe more prone to fast flow.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was among the worst that season, and the fact that I would take that set up and run should tell you something.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me. Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I meant to ask you about this yesterday, but got tied up. That jives with my thoughts....I am sure there will be a brutal period with RNA/+NAO mixed in, but it shouldn't dominate the winter, aside from biasing the DM departures positive. How did it do last year? And what is the DM predicated value this year?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Welcome to June.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm confident it will end up moderate. I would be surprised of the MEI remained weak...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    You require a larger sample size to conclude that we need a very warm subsurface to reach super el nino status? I think we have a much better idea of the peak in mid October than we did last spring. You seem very confident in the ability to if the +IOD to foster continued development of el nino...why not highly anomalous subsurface warmth?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the hemispheric similarity and roll the dice.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, use 30-50mb. Paul, I feel like your largest issue is that you tend to drown yourself in data......I mean, you are attempting to forecast a four month period at several months lead...be exhaustive in the sense that you cover everything, but don't lose focus of the larger picture, which is really what is paramount. You need to set a scope and stick to it. Relegating myself to the 30 and 5-mb levels that CPC posts is good enough for me.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, obviously its a long shot anyway today, but we did just have one 8 years ago, so a repeat is less likely.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks; now I understand. This amount of subsurface warmth through September in the past has portended a moderate peak on average...a coupe weak, a couple strong.
×
×
  • Create New...