40/70 Benchmark

Yea, and that is probably what happens over the winter....we will get at least one solid month of snowman19 forcing....but the hope is that its not the vast majority of the winter.

Well, if you had also been posting it over the course of the summer, then no one would. ; )

I mean, it fluctuates to a degree during every season...this is why we look at the seasonal mean. ENSO never entirely drives the bus over 100% of any given year.

Finally starting to act more like a canonical EP el nino, right as the sst anomalies become more basinwide.

Looks as though forcing is finally migrating eastward this month.

There was a possibility.

Yes, I thought of that one when I typed that. I should have specified wind.

This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst.

We take-

Yea, that fluctuation over the past couple of hours will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.

TWC has a crew there.

Yes, I am not saying it will halt (unless it truly is ERC), but these little structural nuances are probably why it has yet to really rip a hole in the atmosphere as of yet. Still time.

I don't think you can definitively say its solar max yet.

Probably Jim Hughes.

It def won't be as severe as last year.

Regardless of whether or not its technically an ERC, I would think that would keep things in check at least to a degree in terms of intensity.

Yea, TWC said the same. Take 'em down on max intensity if that is indeed the case.

Yea, -PDO is a forgone conclusion.

I don't think anyone is forecasting a replica of 2009 or 2002...all that has been said is that the forcing and MEI are currently similar, which is a sign that this isn't behaving as a traditional canonical el nino...not that will act as a modoki per se. Maybe periods, though.

I was just speaking in general, but the area near Cedar Key is tucked in, which is probably why they have never had a major strike...kind of a mini Georiga.

Well, not physiologically, but it does tell us areas that are perhaps more geographically prone than others...like Hateras vs the Georgia coast.

You need to actually read up on the volcanic implications if you are going to use it. Yes, it seems like it played a role in the strong PV that season, but that eruption was different on that it released a ton of SO2. This one was all water vapor. Pinatubo also had a drastic effect the very next winter....last season was a near neutral NAO in the mean (slightly positive) with two major episodes of blocking. There is not much of a signal for solar max....however, ascending solar is linked to negative NAO and descending is linked to +. We are still ascending.

His rationale is all bogus...the volcano is a convenient excuse, but its not impacting us.