40/70 Benchmark

If the solar cycle hasn't peaked yet, then that is good news for perhaps some intervals of high latitude blocking this coming winter. Notice I said "some intervals" and not a -NAO/AO season per se, as I know that may trigger @GaWx I get the westerly QBO/La Nina correlation and all...just saying, near solar max is less hostile towards periods of winter blocking than descending solar. I certaintly doesn't look good overall, so the argument becomes "just how bad does it look", which is when these factos come into play.

Makes the winter outlook easier. Funny you mention 2007 as an analog...I have mentioend that as a potential best case scenario for the NE...obviously toned down for NNE, as I don't expect 150" of snow just north of KCON.

May be tough to be very dry with all of the latent heat throughout the seas around the globe right now. If anything, it will be easier for the se and mid Atlantic, but the N stream being more prevalent makes it a taller task in the NE.

Not sure, maybe 2000-2001, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015? Only other possibility is maybe 2013-2014...

Well, drier winters are going to be harder to come by given CC... you have to also acknowledge that we are "due" for a cold winter, too then.

Its rough to tell...it gets calculated as we move forward in time and it won't always be apparent for several months when exactly the peak was. It's a fluid situation.

I'd say 4.5...still early, though...see what the tropics do.

I agree...it doesn't look good, but it will probably be better than last year.

I'll take the trade off for a greater frequency of larger storms, even if my the mean snowfall continues to decrease. Take last year of instance.....just over 34", but that one 19" event in January was awesome. What I couldn't stand is a winter comprised of several advisory events and maybe one low-end warning. I am fine with sacraficing a few 4" events if it nets me more big fish.

Looks like @MJO812started tracking the first snow threat after a long overnight shift.

You could get away with doing that while tracking about 95% of SNE severe threats.

Shame.......it used to be the correct forecast that paid the bills.

That "DirectWeather" on youtube or facebook is another weenie site....guys hypes everything and is usually wrong. Every winter looks severe over the NE.

Is he really? Jesus....opposite ENSO signal and complete opposite extra tropical Pacific regime....I would have that season as one of @raindancewx's "antilogs" TBH. I still say he knows better than this and is clearly selling out for clicks....either that, or JB stands for Joe Biden.

1959 and 1975 both featured near normal snowfall for this area the ensuing winter. Sign me up if I could lock that in.

I don't think I have seen any opposition anywhere to another strong -PDO this winter.

Sad, but true.

Agree.

I have five consecutive days above 90...last Friday and Saturday were 89....so very close to seven. Tomorrow probably makes it, but the streak probably ends Saturday. Then I get another four in a row.

It's been a very hot summer and is far from over...but peak climo is what it is, regardless of how the summer has been.

This is pretty much peak climo for the heat....now through like the 23rd.

Jesus.... .03" of rain here.

This is what I said in the main ENSO thread....even independent of CC, one had to expect this decade to take a hit after the run we just went on.

I would argue that slowing development right off of the CV islands/African coast would increase the risk to the US.

I don't really care to argue the semantics of it, as long as you know what I was implying.