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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    94-95 also had residual impact from Pinatubo...94-95 and 2006-2007 were also descending solar, which bolsters PV IMO....there is a solar lag, which is why the seasons lag, so it stands to reason that the most hostile seasons for high latitude blocking are following solar max.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agree. Been my stance all summer and fall...also, if you look at the periodicity of these uber el ninos, we just aren't quite there yet....its only been 8 years.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but in the east......where most of us live.....they were drastically different and that is because of the polar domain. I understand your point and its valid, but I feel like it was confusing to bin them that way without specifiying.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Add in March, which was very wintery in 2005.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice how the east isn't really warm? Polar domain....for folks living in the NE, they are night and day.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2005 is a good example of how we can get a favorable outcome this year...a "ceiling" if you will. I understand that el nino is significantly stronger and Boston is not getting a 100". Agreed...I just mean the east in general.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get your point about it not being a cold modoki due to the PDO, but I think its misleading to bin it with 1995 without at least referencing the major difference in the polar domain. I think this dichotomy is actually a splendid illustration of why the polar fields will be crucial this season given the state of the Pacific. We also had more ridging in the EPO region in 2005.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    1995 had a window in February, but the blocking was less anomalous and more transient.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean...you do the math:
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree here...I have been saying that all winter....and 2005 bolsters that argument because it was the big second half blocking that lead to the blockbuster Miller B season. I understand that, but it wasn't that warm in the mean...no one compared it to Feb 2015. Grouping it with 1994 is silly.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Again, 2004-2005 is being mischaracterized here....the season was biased in the mean by a very prominent early season PV, however, there was a distinct duality to that season....the second half had severe bouts of high latitude blocking...much more anomalous than 1995, which is why it was one of the most prolific seasons in SNE history.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Grouping 1994 with 2004 seems absolutely laughable to anyone residing in SNE...two totally different seasons. I feel like you are getting carried away binning seasons together simply because they each had a + DM temp anomaly. The orientation of el nino is not "moot" because of a sample size of two that were significantly varied from one another in their own right. I had a 107.5" just north of Boston in 2005 with a 60" average.....that works as a modiki in my book.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Outlook #10 is underway....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you know how to find historic wind data?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It definitely can for me...last year wasn't historically bad here....just a run-of-the-mill terd.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not that concerned about a blow torch....I mean, that Philosophy works if you just toss darts at a dart board, but I'm pretty confident it won't be your prototypical very warm el nino...at least not prohibitively so. Just want an active track for the area.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean slide south of me...last weekend did and next weekend may. Don't have a good feel because I'm not tracking.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance's outlook sums up my last 6 seasons.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't analyze Fall systems....still looks to graze south.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is that Miller A whiffs are an illustration of a main concern this season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably strong ONI and moderate MEI/RONI...just strong enough to bombard me with Miller up the (A) rse.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I'll take 60"+ and run.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weaker.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The hope is el nino continues to shit the bed enough where the STJ is less prominent and we get more N stream reliant.
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