Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've had it 6 years running...I'll lose it if it goes 7.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not crazy about the trend of these systems to slide south...been an issue in -PDO el nino seasons.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look forward to delving into it sometime soon. Always appreciate your work.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Welcome back to my range.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I remember @raindancewxsaying that a lot of the warmer eastern el nino analogs had warmer months October....so even though I know it isn't correlated to winter per se, it may be more important this year.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I walked that statement back....not well thought out response on my part. Its actually one of my analogs. I expect the polar domain to be different than 1972, but point taken.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never been on board for a 2.0+ peak ONI and at this point I would be shocked were that to materialize.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I shouldn't say 2018-2019 is irrelevant...we are still in the cold phase of the Pacific and its actually a decent analog, but I expect some more traditional el nino interludes this year is all I meant.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Because that event never coupled itself....really not relevent.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO isn't going to remain extremely negative through winter....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I doubt it will be very prevalent with the el nino of appreciable intensity...but it will probably be responsible for the thawing periods.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    +PNA can also really mimic an RNA if it is west biased, as was the case last January...devil is in the details.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    But MILFS did.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    37.6 was the low.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'd take 1982 and 1963 snowfall....1991 can peace out.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No I don't. I do one in October and that's it. Its hardly growing at this point do to how low solar irradiance is.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Final mow of 2023 in the books.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that makes sense. The season will probably finish above average, but could still be snowy stretches.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't think anyone is thinking cold December in the east.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....closer to neutral or slightly positive...which is what I implied. What is being referenced by snowman19, etc is a power house seasonal PV.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can totally a buy a strong PV early on that biases the season in the aggregate, but I seriously doubt a Pinatubo style impact. I'm relatively confident that we will see a period(s) of major blocking, as was the case last season.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    We just had @griteaterposting a site claiming that it was fully ingested by the polar strat by last January. I agree that its worthy of consideration, but I think its very dubious that we see a wall-to-wall juggernaut PV.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can find a study to support whatever timeframe you would like...pick your study. What we do know is that following Pinatubo, we had a severely +AO winter beginning immediately the next season and lasting several years...what we have now are some people continuing to move the goal posts to imply it takes 2 years to have an impact this case. Sorry, but I call BS.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why didn't it have that impact last winter? Maybe I'm wrong, but from what I have read and observed, I really don't think it will have much of an impact.
×
×
  • Create New...