40/70 Benchmark

Latest IRI suite does nothing to sway me from the 1.6-1.9 range that I honed in on early last summer. That is the final update before I issue.

I don't feel it's going to have much of any impact.

It's not well coupled. Period.

So now Tonga is supposed to enhance blocking?

If someone is insecure enough to think that you copied their work only to distribute it free of charge, then that is their issue. I haver never, nor have I ever attempted to make a dime from my forecasting efforts...to me, its like asking someone to pay me to exercise.

In my experience, it doesn't prevent it. But I suggest doing what I did....write the "nuts and bolts" stuff on a separate post and reference it with a hyper link.

We had a little bit of that last year given the blocking episodes we had....people calling for a +AO/NAO were spiking footballs like a Monday night Cowboys opponent.

Doing that now....its very tedious and long....I refer to an addendum post from a few years ago to explain the fundamentals because hardly anyone reads it as it is its so long. That is where I am at.

This place saves me so much work lol Game face on as of today....started writing, so I will be more scarce the next couple of weeks.

I am the most confident I have been since 2014 in my overall conceptualization of this season....exact snowfall totals aside.

Yea, I meant to mention that with 87 and 2002-2003...funny because all 3 of those interior analogs were +PDO, which I don't expect....maybe another hint that we will have decent PNA periods, despite the PDO.

That to me screams interior and elevation.

Looks to me like more of the NE screw jobs were -IOD...battle bewteen that and -PDO. Sometimes in a situation like that, I just go with my gut and a what I feel we are "due" for.

Yea, same.,,,January 1987 and Dec/Jan 2002-2003 were like that.

1986 is another year we were in on it.

Agreed.

No coincidence that he saw fit to weenie my post above....more often than not, that type of reaction is another defense mechanism born of a reluctance to engage in any form of critical self-evaluation due to suspicion that it would yield undesirable results.

Have you ventured past these graveyards? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt its not as strong as it looks, just as the la nina last year was stronger than it looked. You want to tell me it won't be cold or a great retention season...agreed. But I don't see anything at all that suggests a train wreck.

Its only a concern if you are looking for a cold winter....it makes prolonged and severe blocking less likely, which is happening due to CC, anyway.

What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?

Overattribution can go both ways, too....you can incorporate easterly QBO without forecasting a 1995-1996 style seasonal blocking.

I feel like we have to be wary of overattribution...ie feeling compelled to go below normal snowfall in NE due to -PDO/QBO. How I interpret that is a reduced chance of a blockbuster season, but in the absence of other strong mitigating factors, its not necessarily a death knell for NE snowfall.

I get what snowman is saying and at the end of the day, its about remaining consistent within your own seasonal forecasting ideology....and I feel as though I am doing that since I do not expect below normal precipitation or temperatures. I buy the warmer/wetter tendency for +IOD and the blocking tendency for -QBO only in the sense that I do not expect a very robust PV...its the -QBO/below average precipitation tendency that I put the least stock in. SO, I guess in terms of weight... 1 +IOD Milder Temps 2 +IOD Wetter 3 -QBO Some blocking 4 -QBO dry NE

I do buy the -PDO as more of an issue for precipitation because I can see how less incidence of PNA ridging would impede systems from climbing the coast. Anyway, I don't expect a top ten snowfall season around these parts.

Conflicting signals, which is usually the case in seasonal forecasting. It comes down to whether the forecaster wants to incorporate the -QBO or +IOD more into the precipitation forecast. I don't see how the QBO would limit precipitation in the NE, aside from some seasons that featured extreme blocking, which I do not expect to be the case. I feel as though CC will reduce the occurrence of precipitation deficits and protracted episodes of extreme blocking, so I am pretty consistent with that. I do see what E QBO favors more blocking...not a huge factor, but it makes sense.