40/70 Benchmark

The bi-monthly Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI.v2) is the time series of the leading combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of five different variables (sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)) over the tropical Pacific basin (30°S-30°N and 100°E-70°W). The EOFs are calculated for 12 overlapping bi-monthly "seasons" (Dec-Jan, Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar,..., Nov-Dec) in order to take into account ENSO's seasonality, and reduce effects of higher frequency intraseasonal variability. During the typical height of ENSO during late Fall/early Winter, the canonical features of atmosphere and ocean anomalies are shown schematically below based on a composite of 11 historical El Niño and La Niña events. Key features of composite positive MEI events (warm, El Niño) include (1) anomalously warm SSTs across the east-central equatorial Pacific, (2) anomalously high SLP over Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and low SLP over the eastern tropical Pacific, (3) reduction or reversal of tropical Pacific easterly winds (trade winds), (4) suppressed tropical convection (positive OLR) over Indonesia and Western Pacific and enhanced convection (negative OLR) over the central Pacific (Fig. 1a). Key features of composite negative MEI events (cold, La Niña, Fig. 1b) are of mostly opposite phase. For any single El Niño or La Niña situation, the atmospheric articulations may depart from this canonical view. Fig. 1: Schematic diagram showing the physical mechanisms by which the SST (shaded), OLR (contours), surface zonal and meridional winds (vectors), and sea level pressure (represented by "H" and "L" which indicate the high and low pressure center, respectively) determine the wintertime Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) during (a) El Niño and (b) La Niña events. The schematic is based on the composite anomalies for November-December (ND) drawn from 11 warm events and 11 cold events during 1980-2016.

We didn't need the overwhelming canonical response that produced the powerful Pac jet that eviscerated the entire month of December. I'm sorry, I just do not agree with you. We'll see how it plays out...I am not concerned about the winter being dominated by Maritime forcing.....during thaw periods, I can see some phase 6...sure.

The other caveat being that this el Nino isn't half as coupled with the atmosphere as that one was. People need to stop comparing this to the most intense el Nino events in history because this is orders of magnitude less expressed in the hemisphere, regardless of the SST anomalies.

Greenline is down, I think.

Eh, we're all getting old.

Yea, just about time....firing up my model perscriptions.

"As I get colder, I don't mind the torches so much"....you have said something to that effect on several different occasions.

Says the guy who cries about the cold every winter for the past 10 years.

I can't stand driving in town, but I'll probably be there....no issues with the venue.

I need a Miller C.

Cool. Same

I would think at least 8 based on the poll....

Its not dropping....these folks were the minority that voted for other dates.

2pm. I am going to leave the date 12/2... I don't see anyone who originally went 12/2 now saying that they can't make it, which would be cause for change....I know that confuses the more feeble minded, but it is what it is.

Safe to assume @CoastalWxis out because I don't think he has ever ended up coming once he expressed doubt lol Would 12/9 be easier for you?

So it seems like you are out. Which date did you vote for?

I have yet to see anyone explicitly say that they can make 12/9 and not 12/2....Jerry maybe, but he also said he can try to show up during the PM and he normally doesn't stay late, anyway. Scott may have a sitter issue, but he didn't say the next week would be any better. What I do see is 7 votes for 12/2 and 3 votes for 12/9.

I think this timing is perfect TBH.....the only season that I can recall to have early December snow not rot is 1995....every other large early December snowfall was skunked and nearly gone by the holidays. I am talking e MA coastal plane...obviously this is probably different in the ORH hills.

Why would we move it to a date where less people will show per the poll? Are there any folks who would like to change their vote?

You have a point about the PV, but no one expected this season to be frigid...all the more reason to be leery of the early threats until climo catches up.

I am confident that this season will provide enough high latitude blocking for that not to be a major issue for the majority of the season. Perhaps I will be wrong, but the passage of the MJO through the maritime continent in early December is not a sign of that.

I am going to keep abreast with the tropics more than I have in previous seasons, as that is why I missed the mild mid winter stretch last season......I don't see any deviation from the forecast as of yet....el Nino maybe peaking on the high end of my 1.7 to 1.9 range, but that is NBD.

My thoughts on the month was always serviceable and backloaded.....and you take that an bolt in a strong el Nino. The hand wringing in November is beyond me.

You have to remove the emotion and view each season in a vacuum....you can't look at it through last season's lens or this is what you get.