Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not doubting, just saying....I'm not paying attention yet...at least to the medium range.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This past weekend did, too, a week ago.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think there is any doubt that this will be a -PDO DM on average....so this makes sense to me.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say he was expecting that...but 4th all time el Nino is historic.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.0+ peak ONI is historic.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is always a gradient somewhere with a neg NAO/PNA pattern...the point is it wasn't a "game-over" month for the entire east coast like February. Lumping March together with February is silly.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, probably why we got a west biased PNA in January that acted like an RNA.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    March wasn't a lost cause at all...snowfall totals don't tell the entire story.....there was a HECS like 15 mi to my west.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paul Roundy
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think there is any entity, man or machine, that accurately predicted the depth of that western CONUS trough.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Zero chance.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    'Warmest waters continue to straddle the dateline"....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its both...think of it like the loaded dice analogy to describe GW in that the we have greater potential for warmer outcomes. The pattern does that with respect to snowfall, but it doesn't mean it never deviates....just like we still have colder seasons despite the background signal of GW.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take 1963, 1965 and 1968, gladly....3/7 -PDO/el nino isn't horrible. ...it comes down to the polar domain, no matter how I view things.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just let him go...if he can't see it at this point then he never will.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would gladly take 1995 verbatim...that is actually my #1 season...2014 is #2. I would take the 2009 pattern again and have another roll of the dice.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with you at all. Perhaps the most likely outcome, sure.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it was decent down there but decided to play it safe....My presence around this place predates subforums, so I know it pisses people off when someone from New England decides what they should consider acceptable. lol
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I am. Doesn't mean an awful season down there, but it just limits ceiling...like big STJ does here. I'm sure you would take a 1977-1978, though that was +PDO....-PDO and n stream dominant is more like 2004-2005, which you wouldn't like, but I still think el nino is strong to ensure a bonafide STJ presence this season.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    In December, I agree.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could also mean more N stream involvement, which is a trade I would make...give me 2005 over 2010 any day of the week.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some gradient like periods, as well maybe.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was fine with how you did it...I got it. Bottom line is that the PDO will prevent a very cold winter in the east and the polar domain will need to be favorable for a good season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it is....but compare 1994 to the other 4. That is all I was saying. Clearly a +PDO modoki has colder potential than a negative PDO season. I don't think anyone expects a frigid eastern US winter.
×
×
  • Create New...