40/70 Benchmark

1982, 1991 and 2009 rose .8 from JJ...largest I can find. That would place us at 1.1 as a winter MEI peak. Like I said...I am willing to assume a record recovery and say 1.5 to be safe. I am talking developing el nino....you find greater recoveries in decaying cold ENSO events, sure.

Really??? Based on what? Its at 0.3 as of JJ 2023...care to cite an example of it recovering 1.7 between July and winter during a developing el nino? From what I am looking at, it usually rises about .4-.5. I am willing to say maybe 1.5, tops...but don't see 2.0.

They are both related...the PNA on paper wasn't near record because of the fraud east-based PNA during January, but it essentially acted like on in the seasonal mean.

Yes. Forgot about him because he is incognito. Although he did bomb his last effort pretty badly before leaving...I think it was 20-21 he went big +NAO and it was blocky.

The only other one of @snowman19's points worth addressing is with respect to the PDO/PNA parting ways. If you look back through analogs, its really not that uncommon and some the ones that I feel are best begin RNA and then flip. Doesn't mean huge PNA in the mean...not what I meant to imply. It will be illustrated well in my final work. I feel I have addressed his other points more than adequately here. One thing you have to remember about me is the only thing that I love as much as snow is being right, so trust me.....I am not going to predict a big winter if I honestly don't think it will happen...well, not consciously, anyway.

What I will say is that the only seasonal forecaster that I know of who is transparent enough for me to definitively say that he are better than I am is @raindancewx. But I would like to see a sample of his work during a string of big east coast years and meager west coast years, like last decade. He started posting here like the fall of 2018 from what I can recall, and its been a string of poor east coast years. We are all human and passionate about the weather, and while that passion is an asset and serves as a protective factor within most realms of life, it can be of a detriment to forecasting proficiency. The first step to overcoming it is like any other malady or even form of addiction.... insight. You aren't going to get better until you are honest with yourself and George raises a sound point that I am well aware of.

This is fair and I am working on it. But if I honestly feel the forcing will be west, I am not going to forecast based upon what I think George will say about me 6 months from now. You have to erase everything from your memory except for new information gleaned with respect to forecasting over the last year. Most of that + snow bias data is from 2 years....2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Absolutely horrible work. But had I known about RONI and descending solar/+NAO relationship back then, I would NOT have been operating on the premise of a weak el nino with big blocking. You need to remember that much of the mid atlantic averages like 10-15" of snowfall, so a bad year or two will take a decade or two of incredible forecasting of an element subject to a great deal of variance like snowfall to even begin to overcome.

You say I suck, which may be true, but the issue is that until more forecasters are as diligent and transparent as I am, then we really don't know because there isn't much to compare it to. Getting a hit 3/10 times seems like it would make for a shitty baseball player, but 'alas- Hitting a baseball and forecasting several months in advance are hard.

Horrible track record with respect to snowfall, which is subject to a great deal of variance....I would argue last winter's effort was pretty solid. Index Value Predicted '22-'23 DM Value Range Actual '22-'23 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1.27 to -1.57 -1.87 Biased .30 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 -.68 Biased .03 positive ENSO SON -1.0 to -1.2 EMI: .3 to .5 (slightly east-hybrid) SON -1.0 (Verified) Verified +1 Modoki Error (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.43 Biased .73 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.15 to -.45 -.38 Verified North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.15 to +.45 +.23 Verified

It does, but when you have the time, go back and read all of the outlook verification works. If that rationale is not sound, then let me know. Let me ask you this....if I had a conscious snowfall bias, why I spend so much time researching only to be painfully transparent about said bias??? I have an exercise for you...go back to all of snowman19's work over the past decade and lets see if any biases become apparent Oh wait, no trasnparency.....or work history for that matter. Maybe confiscate his laptop and have a gander at his Twitter search history over the last decade?

Triggered lol And to think, that was like 30% of his remaining daily allotment.

0.00. I never, ever said ignore the MEI...find that quote, please. What I said was I will take my chances on a decent winter with appreciable episodes of blocking.....which worked out. But we had a record -PDO. If you are going to make it a practice of predicting record anomalies while doing seasonal outlooks, then good luck.

Slow down...at this pace, we won't have anyone to update us on ENSO by noon.

It was clear to me doing the seasonal that there would be some decent blocking....I'll always take my chances with that and do well the vast majority of the time.

I'm talking about at extended leads....anything less than a record -PDO would have been fine last year.

Just my opinions....not all fact per se, of course.

I feel like it would be the PDO for sustained cold....but nothing beats a stochastic PNA flex for a nice storm.

Same....48.2 @ 620AM.

Holy July lol

Global warming cancel!!!!! I kid, of course, but that is no more idiotic than attributing every single anomaly to GW. (Not speaking at you...just to you).

Its not exceedingly rare for the PDO and PNA to part ways...I actually think that they will this year.

I think SNE should feel good about the prospects of -PDO coupled with some moderate blocking.

The PDO was negative in 2009-2010. You have to remember that last season featured a record negative PDO in order to guard against PTSD that will bias your outlook. That said, I get that that season has a huge neg NAO, which is unlikely, so safe to say that DC probably isn't getting 60". Doesn't mean it will suck.

The MEI and RONI are...remember you made the point about how strongly last year's la nina acted, despite the modest ONI? Take a look at the MEI. I'm also not sure the forcing will not be modoki like due to how warm the western Pacific and Nino 4 are.