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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB's use of the term "migrating modoki" is dumb, as this is not a modoki, but it doesn't mean it can't end up acting like one due to the W PAC and he is right about the N PAC on the EURO.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what JB (I know) hit on in his last video when analyzing the Sept Euro. The guy is biased as hell...I get it, but he knows his stuff.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    You saw my posts, too...I mean, look familiar?? Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather Blocking likely August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather -PDO likely, but the best matches and majority of analog seasons had +PNA in the DM mean.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, if you don't trust them to adequately diagnose major hemispheric drivers, then why are we assuming they have ENSO anomalies correct to within .3 degrees?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends how you are using them....I wouldn't rip and read them, but they can identify general themes and help the forecaster to focus on prominent seasonal drivers.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe the seasonal consensus is wrong...certainly very possible at this lead. But enough with the pillaging of anyone who espouses their content, especially those who have been touting such an outcome for some time now.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't offered a RONI prediction, but probably...maybe 1.5, tops....like the MEI.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its like me calling you biased for expecting a super el nino when guidance is showing....a super el nino. Doesn't mean I have to agree or think it will be right, but its a a valid, supported conclusion.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It validates my argument as sound, not that it will necessarily be reality. Is this that difficult to understand?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    As a result, I am keeping my ONI prediction between 1.5 and 1.9, where it has been all summer.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That has been what has been happening all summer, save for a couple of weeks in August and its shifting back. Regardless, all I am suggesting is that the fact that models are now showing what I have been arguing provides me with a measure of validation since you accused me of being biased and having an agenda.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you remember, snowman gave me shit over it, but I said that I expected the PDO and PNA to part ways.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its getting pretty hard to ignore, at this point....this is congruent with my research a month ago on the winter 2023-2024 polar domain.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have been thinking around that.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even assuming a 1991 type recovery places it at 1.7 by FM...I can't imagine it getting higher than that for winter.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...same.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    And even if it hits, it will be nothing we haven't seen several times over the course of the last decade or so.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    They have inched west.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    GFS was too far WEST with Idalia.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suggest people just enjoy the show that Lee is beginning to put on, independent of any IMBY "I have a dream" wish.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Far better shot of those coming to pass.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it made LF at Cozumel as cat 5 160mph?
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