40/70 Benchmark

Wow...I didn't know that. Yea, massive storm. First one I remember following on TWC.

I think Gilbert ('88) is still 2nd at 888mb.

The best shot of a real impactful system would be a Sandy/Perfect Storm type of phase....lotto ticket.

Here are my thoughts for anyone interested. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/09/hurricane-lee-minimal-threat-to-us.html?m=1

Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US | Eastern Mass Weather Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US High Surf Primary Impact Currently Hurricane Lee is a minimal category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 80MPH However, guidance continues to emphatically suggest that the system will soon undergo rapid intensification into at least a category 4 storm. Thus the most important consideration is whether or not this system is likely to have a major impact on the US and the answer is no. Future Path & Intensity of Lee Spell Minimal Threat to US While there is still a great deal of uncertainty among guidance concerning the precise track of Lee over the next several days, one aspect that guidance is essentially in unanimous agreement on is that the system will begin to recurve to the north by approximately 70 degrees longitude, as a weakness develops the ridge downstream from the hurricane. This is a crucial portion of the forecast because climatology can often be used as a guide when computer models are at the periphery of their more skilled range, which is the case here. In this case, it is evident that hurricanes that go onto greatly impact the NE US at least approach about 75 degrees on longitude before veering towards the north. But clearly guidance is in strong agreement that that will not be the case with Lee. Although agreement is strong, there was one lone voice of dissent amongst the European ensemble suite that would pose a particularly dire threat to the state of Florida. But this scenario is an extreme outlier considering that 51/52 European members turn Lee to the north and every one of the GFS ensemble members do. Thus confidence in the above scenario is well above average relative to the extended lead time and thus a major impact to the NE can essentially be ruled out since the hurricane will begin its recurve so far to the east. But essentially is not synonymous with entirely. Like that lone voice of dissent among the European cluster that loomed ominously for Florida, there are two outlier GFS ensemble members that draw Lee into the trough and track the system over Cape Cod on approximately September 18. Although this is an exceedingly unlikely scenario, which is illustrated by climatology, it is a theoretically plausible scenario. But Lee would first have to traverse waters that have been significantly cooled due to the upwelling caused by Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Idalia, thus whether or not Lee would impact the Cape as a hurricane is very dubious. In fact it is more likely than not that it would have been downgraded to a tropical storm by this point, which coupled with the asymmetrical wind distribution that is characteristic of tropical storms interacting with mid latitude systems, would mean sensible impact commensurate with a typical winter nor 'easter rather than a major hurricane strike. Remain vigilant, but unalarmed and any updates will be issued later this week if warranted-

Risk to Bermuda also greater due to reduced time for weakening over upwelled waters.

Yes.

I mean, I get it...September is a brutal month for weather and its all we have are the tropics, but you need to keep it real or else you only set yourself up for disappointment.

There have been a series of fairly compelling threats to NE over the past few decades of tropical futility, but this is not one of them. Its a really lame situation with a very limited ceiling for impact.

He also tried to hallucinate a threat to NE from Idalia's corpse into existence.

No, it would not. It would weaken quite quickly over the reduced TCHP under the churned waters from Idalia/Franklin and would approach at slower than climo rate of speed. Not to mention that windfield would become more lopsided favoring the eastern side of the circlulation.

I would like to see that one GEFS member that plows it into FL pan out.

Even the couple that hit the cape would not be a big deal for the vast majority of us....a nor 'easter.

Not at all....even if it somehow got pulled up here, it wouldn't be too strong. This is mainly a high surf ordeal.

That began my several year regression pay back following March 2018.

The Atlantic and polar field will cooperate...I am increasingly convinced of that. I like what I see.

I got porked in the March event...I remember I thought I was in great shape for that big northern band and it ended up over you and Will. I had like 8".

I could totally see that.

Simple and to the point relative to NE interests...this 70W recurve won't cut it. I think if it somehow missed the trough, then big trouble for FL.....but otherwise....

If this could some how miss the trough and heads towards FL, then I'd be all in. But unlikely.

No.

Extremely remote chance, but track away.

Excellent post. I have zero interest in this because it looks to run up 70W.

Lots of uncertainty about where exactly it will go, which is expected several days out, but really not much uncertainty about whether or not it makes landfall in the US. Doesn't mean zero impact, but it is what it is.

I really don't see anything overly compelling in terms of US interests. Meteorologically speaking, sure.