40/70 Benchmark

Had we not had a trough dug into Baja all winter it would have been better...there have been few incidences of that, but I can assure you that they all had a ridge in the NE. I expected a trough out west, but its tough to anticipate that type of an anomaly at a seasonal level.

This is only an issue for a forecaster expecting a very cold winter...I don't know of any-

Yes, I was just talking short term cold. I'm not saying it can't get cold without a cryosphere, but if you are wondering why this blocky October was warmer than past blocky month's of October, aside from CC, that is a smoking gun.

He missed the NAO last season, but like I said, he has been as accurate as anyone has. He did get the sensible weather right.

As much as people scoff at the SCE as a seasonal predictor, there is no question that the cryosphere provides a sound foundation for a sufficient to ample reservoir of cold. This season we are waaaaaay behind in that capacity, so my question is where does one expect the cold to come from this early?? Many of the other seasons in your composite had a much more robust SCE during the fall and while the warm oceans and potentially the PDO will be mitigating factors this season, cold will undoubtedly be more readily available once we build a cryosphere/SCE throughout Canada.

The issue with me having a snow/cold bias in the east is also there...it is what it is. Insight is the only path to alleviating any emotional bias....and while there may be an element of that, there has often been a pretty understandable reason why the forecast didn't work out....like the record PDO last year (I got the blocking correct), and the false el nino seasons of '18-'19 and '19-'20. The RONI would have also caused me to go tamer in 2015-2016, which was my other tough effort due to overemphasizing the fact that the other super el Nino events were more east-based. I say this because the RONI is something that I legitimately feel I need to incorporate and it isn't just an avenue to forecast more snow and cold this season than I otherwise would.

TBH, I think he can be a jerk more often than not, but in the interest of being objective he has been about as good as anyone I have ever seen on a seasonal level since 2018. He forecasts based on an elaborate matrix of correlations and sensible weather analogs, so it doesn't always necessarily fit with conventional methods that are heavily index and ENSO reliant. I call it as I see it...I remember coming off of the high of a really good 2017-2018 forecast, I was making fun of raindance for going warm in the east when I first noticed him on here in the fall of 2018. I was convinced it was going to be a cold, modoki el nino winter and got my ass handed to me. Of course, had I known about RONI, etc then, I would have had a different forecast, but the point is you can't let your personal view on someone bias your perception of their forecasting ability. He is a good forecaster.

The unfortunate truth is that he has been generally right every year since 2018.

Sounds like the UKMET in the medium range.

It's like the Superstorm shifted 100 mi east.

Just a joke.

Oh oh...more like la nina? I thought el Nino was taking off and coupling??!! Add Judah to Paul Roundy's naughty list

Yea, that weaker Aleutian low displaced to the west is a key feature of modoki.

That's consistent with phases 8 and 1 for November.

You might not want to look at the SAI this year. Yesterday, Judah said it looks really bad, bottom feeder and there’s only 5 days left to go. Larry Cosgrove said arctic sea ice is abysmal too Yea, I'm aware....not too worried.

@weatherwizTold you that you were too detailed lol Yea, this winter comes down to the arctic.

Damage looks cat 5 to me.

Modoki el Nino are more associated with -IOD, too.

This is true for New England. But different tables do yield different results because I have seen 1965, 1968 and 1977 listed as +IOD.

I have seen a lot of winter composites distinguishing between IOD and PDO phases....which can also be explained by the polar domain.

This jives with my understanding....but I believe that 1963, 1965, 1968 and 1977 were also +IOD...all good winters. Blocking is the difference. Most of the el Nino NE screw job seasons were also -IOD...that isn't as frequent in +IOD.

Its seems to be its generally tied to canonical el nino, and modoki are more often in tandem with -IOD.

Its not a frigid pattern, but I don't think anyone expects that.

In which case, the polar fields become crucial as to whether winter can be salvaged, as the dichotomous nature of those two seasons in terms of NE snowfall illustrates.

That to me screams "active" with the split flow....and while the polar domain doesn't look great, the PNA over top of the STJ in the split flow would ensure enough cold to keep folks engaged. Like.