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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Got to Clark's on the 19th...real festive vibe on the eve of a pattern shift.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....you are going to get sick no matter what you do. Having the sniffles isn't going to prompt me to cancel any plans. Just don't stick your tongue down anyone's throat and hope for the best.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jesus, glad I checked the thread .. .was gonna say I will be there at 3 instead of 2, but I guess we cancel.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    It seems like some folks are so emotionally fragile and dependent upon snow that they want a written guarantee of crystalized armageddon in their back yard. It doesn't work like that...all you can do is diagnose general features in the pattern and hope for the best. Any additional measures to safe guard against what we are observing in this forum at the very onset of met winter should be taken on the couch or zoom feed of a good therapist.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What got pushed back last year? We got the huge block in December, regardless of of the fact that it didn't produce snow on the east coast. Again, we got the Feb SSW and resultant huge block in March, right on schedule. -PDO is fine as long as you aren't expecting a very cold eastern winter, which no one is. This will not be a prohibitively extreme-PDO list last year.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would....well, se MA could, but highly doubt interior sne.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly think that stetch... not the season, could rival 2011 and 1996 if things break right.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, good, apparently that may save winter.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we don't cash in on it....depends on how it breaks, but we should see some big blocks IMO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you were lucky considering what happened in March.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    We should see a block like that this year IMO. I know Chris would argue it has to be displaced southward now since 2015, so lets get that out of the way.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I see what you talking about regarding concerns about the secondary getting going later. I wouldn't expect much there...maybe up to several inches.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, well regardless, the idea that it would prevent the MJO from entering the Maratime phases was wrong.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyway, a supbar month of December during el Nino is certainly nothing new.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the IOD is rapidly weaking now FWIW...but I never said that, though I do recall it being said.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dude, I'll be on the couch engaged in fits of self-dialogue complete with response to internal stimuli. "its not going out to sea...(aggressive nod)...fu**king shit streaks and oes"
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I swear, a few of the folks on here could use some Dialectical Behavioral Therapy to promote more nuanced thought patterns.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Who said it was going to "shut down" forcing in those regions? Are el Nino seasons supposed to be devoid of Maritime forcing? I have never argued that...we were in the west PAC phases during November, so we are not "shut down" there, either. As far as the warmth in region 4, again, no one is forecasting a cold season, so why are you bringing up weak Modoki years? All I am saying is that the position near the dateline will keep the warmth in check and give us wintery periods.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will say....I have never been this confident in my 10 years of doing seasonal work, so I am pretty calm. If I get porked, it will be a sadistic IMBY type of dynamic.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh....I can def toss my kids' favorite toys against the wall....they will soon understand to link that with winter time rain.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No....not there yet. Check in on NY and if there is nothing imminent, then I may offer up some "interesting" material.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I recall raindance correlating Nino 4 warmth to warmer outcomes, too, but lets just see what happens. We have posted enough schematics at this point to rest easy knowing that we've been exhaustively exhaustive in our efforts. Time to let the atmosphere decide which camp is right.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris is a very intelligent dude....no doubt. I respect his opinions, but there is no data that is going to change anyone's mind at this point because we have all been obsessing over it for several months....what else can possibly be presented? At this point, I think we just need to agree to disagree with those whom we do not see eye to eye and reevaluate the new "data" that results from this winter.
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