40/70 Benchmark

I think the path to the most wind on the west side is for this to complete extra tropical transition with great haste and essentially strike as a nor 'easter. While it is true that the wind field is expanding, the envelop of winds also becomes increasingly asymmetrical in the mid latitudes with much less wind on the west side of the system. It's on the east side where you add the forward momentum of movement where the strongest gusts more proficiently mix down. The west side is the focus on heavy rain, however.

I don't think it will be worse on the west side, with the exception of rain.

2009 being relatively shitty up here was a fluke....just so happened that the PV flexed at the perfectly wrong time to shunt those big early Feb events southward. 1982 was fine, as were 1962, 1965 and 1968. I definitely wouldn't forecast well above average snowfall with a -PDO here, but it's hardly a nail in the coffin for decent snow.

I don't think anyone was bitching or moaning...I was merely trying to understand what drove the correlation.

Yea, that is counterintuitive that -PDO is more detrimental to NE snowfall then mid Atlantic snowfall...I'll bet it has to do with the greater variance up here.

I'm not sure how -PDO correlates to more snowfall in the mid Atlantic. Doesn't make sense to me.

Off the top of my head, 1963, 1965 and 1968 were good here....in fact, the latter was one of the best in history....but there are some duds.

2009 and 1972 stick out as -PDO el nino seasons that screwed Boston...but 1958 certainly did not.

Anti correlation...meaning negative correlation, correct?

Seems like a sample size fluke to me. I have a hard time envisioning a physical reason why Philly would be better of in a -PDO than Boston. But I'm all ears....maybe -PNA not allowing s stream to amplify enough??

The pattern looks the same...no large scale shifts.

Looks like primarily noise to me.

So, you buy the Euro seasonal?

A few of us have explained ad nauseam why that is the case. Ignore at your own peril.

No, it wouldn't. That season had a power house PV all season long and a black hole over AK. We had neither. I think 2001-2002 was better.

I guess I haven't been paying close enough attention to notice because I'm not very interested in this.

If having an OP vacillate back and forth from one end of its ensemble mean to the other on a day 10 forecast renders it trash, then we are all forecasting from a garbage bin.

That was obvious.

Riding off of the high of your imminent 3rd fantasy title.

I remember by around the holidays it was obvious mid winter was in trouble, but he just wouldn't back down. I agree with snowman 100% on that.

He kept using 95-96 and 10-11 as his analogs last year and wouldn’t stop insisting that it was about to get very cold and snowy week after week from November through March. It was like he was living in an alternative universe. He was God awful last winter, terrible Yea, he was. Agreed. However, he had been very good over the course of the previous few.

Cosgrove mentions a potential modoki this season as a possibility.

I know @griteateris aware of this, but its important not to generalize the impact of volcanic eruptions in much the same manner that we used to ENSO, as they come in all shapes, sizes and locales...they have varying impact depending upon the location, global circulation pattern, substances emitted, etc. Assuming a ++AO/NAO as followed Pinatubo just because we had a recent eruption is akin to assuming that every el nino will behave like a modoki and we know how much @snowman19would appreciate that.

We'll see what happens. I'm glad you brought that up, though...something to remain mindful of this season.

He raised a good point, but I think I offered a nice counter by pointing out the severe blocking that we had last March...for which I never received a response.