40/70 Benchmark

We are going to see volatility among medium and long range guidance during the transition time, so I advise everyone to be mindful of premature spiking of the football, regardless of expectation.

I mean, even 2003 started that way....its not a big deal.....1987, too.

December could be a wash.....that is possible. I will admit it to getting sucked in a bit for the holiday period, but would I be suprised or would it cause me to reconsider anything if it takes until after NY? Nope.

As usual, an oasis of objectivity in a sea of impulsive knee-jerk overreaction. It goes both ways...there was a great deal of premature football spiking from winter enthusiasts at the onset of December. I agree with all of this, though still do favor an eventual SSW....not that it is the end all, be all...but it is what it is.

Agree.

Happy holidays.

The crap pattern will change....maybe Xmas will be 50 degrees and maybe it will take longer than many of us had thought...maybe it won't. But keep in mind that periods of flux will often feature marked volatility in the extended range on guidance, so try to take a step back and wait. Look how everyone was spiking footballs for a time about December prospects when we were transitioning from the cold November regime to this. Even @raindancewxisn't calling for a blow torch of a winter, as his NE snow defecit is more tied to a flukey seasonal precip hole based on -PDO analogs, which is far more precarious and correctable than a 1997-1998 redux. Just enjoy the holidays, play in puddles and go with the flow.

This. I have zero interest in this....but all we will hear about until Monday night. I get it, its weather, blah, blah.....but nothing compelling about it IMBY.

Yes. He likes to low key troll cold/snow lovers.

Obviously....

I will be pretty suprised if we don't see a SSW, though it certainly looks as though it will not be in December.

Well, moderately strong Maritime forcing also favors +NAO. Watch the +NAO go bye-bye in a few weeks.

Looks like the GFS suite is just more of a PV elongation, whereas the European decimates it.

The MJO is doing that.

I feel like the QPF max is also sometimes associated with the mid level deformation. Not always..

At Kevin's house it's easy....go sleet.

Eh....like I said, case-by-case. They can be better qualitative tools than qualitative, but when your method will fail is in a big coastal with potent deformation areas....having the mid levels be a prolific driver of snowfall is an entirely different ballgame because the models greatly struggle with mid level dynamics....you will see the vast majority of QPF focused with the low level deformation when the heaviest amounts actually fall near the modeled NW gradient, underneath the best mid level CSI.

Right...thanks. I literally had that a$$ backwards. Like I said....middle age and the offseason are a bad combo. I think the proprietary NARCAN maps from F5 are some sort of modified Kuchera product. There are a few instances when Kuchera can be fairly accurate when snow growth is ideal in a deformation zone, but that is not frequent...that is what I was thinking of.

Its can be tricky though because sometimes models can underestimate height crashes with a rapidly intensifying system and that ideology can back-fire. You have to view each system individually, but more often than not, you are right.

I get rusty sometimes in the offseason....are you implying Kuchera is best for the marginal events fraught with precipitation type issues?

I like NARCAN and positive depth change maps the best, unless in a deformation area, then you can weight Kuchera much more aggressively.

Hopefully DC grabs a few inches....I am anecdotally pulling this out of my rear, but I feel like a plowable December snowfall in DC would a good omen for the rest of winter.

I never expected anything from the Monday deal, so no complaints on that.....I don't expect any snow here until Xmas and even that may be more up and in. It is what it is and you are right people are allowing the bitter IMBY residue to cloud the prism through which they view the rest of the season.

Everyone read December as warm....it really wasn't a difficult call and shouldn't suprise anyone.