40/70 Benchmark

I just meant as an example shrouded in hyperbole of how you don't need blocking to be wintry....but it should come back, anyway.

Its a January and Feb analog of mine....weeeeeeeee

You are right, though....those crazy positive departures are becoming the norm.

Yea, I didn't want to go there because the CC monsters would eat me hahha

We get the blocking with a shitty Pacific and hear "Pacific is king...useless blocking"....then we get a better Pacific and the moment the blocking relaxes its climate change diatribes lol.

It looks to me like the the system from the 20th drives up near Greenland and congeals into a PV, which explains the + flip in the polar domain.....and I mean, at some point I guess the cold will need to be replenished and the pattern resets. I understand why the temp hitting 60 instead of 50 is due to CC (this is not disputed....huge posotive departures are more common), but the sequence itself I don't feel is. I still bet a lot of money that blocking redevelops in February and is paired with a better Pacific than we had in January and certainly February.

A much more concise explanation is offered up in my signature.

I just feel like the day 10 OP is useless, but just me...you do you and paste away.

EPS is great for Tuesday....some tasty members. Looks maybe a hair inside of the BM for the 20th.

Looks more like Attleboro to me.

So what do you believe happens once the MJO progresses beyond phase 6 as the calendar flips to February?

Certain posters love to focus on what they know will elicit the greatest response and angst.

My goal isn't to get to -10*F...its to have as much snowfall possible IMBY...and the month is off to a hell of a start, meltdown not withstanding....but that was expected this season. I have never felt as though it would be a big retention season. That said, I think we have an opportunity for more of that in February.

I agree that the worst of the cold will be west, but personally, I am okay with forgoing the opportunity to have the PV queef on my noggin. I agree with the pattern relaxation, but this is not December...its a new pattern with an Aleutian low in place/building PNA and another PV lobe poised for descent.

I love the later development from an IMBY perspective and am willing to gamble with that.

All that matters to me:

The late January warm up is what looks transient to me.

Especially on a model like the GFS.

Difference being I don't think this season will be a one-hit wonder that is gone within days, like 2016.

Colder version of 2015-2016, yes. I always agreed with that.

How much did you get? Bare ground headed into last weekend?

Yea, I mean .1 out of the range......doesn't make much of a difference. Its just noted for the purpose of verification.

Yea, it will probably finish .1 above my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range, at 2.0...so I'll give him props on the strength call. But I'm generally happy with where it looks like we are headed relative to my outlook. December was milder than I thought, though. I wish I had weighed 2015 more heavily.

Quite happy with my January analogs. January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) The only reason I left 2003 off was because of the Pacific, but sensible weather wise, similar storm track, just milder in the aggregate. You can see how prevalent the +PNA was in Jan 2003, though....I didn't expect that and we haven't seen that. Granted the Pacific was also different in 2015 but I still included it because I thought it was a decent sensible weather match throughout the spring/summer and into the fall.

Ranges from 2-3" left at my house. Down from a peak depth of 18". Full coverage, though...only grass is under and around the pine tree.