40/70 Benchmark

I may call out Monday...commute is going to be miserable.

Xmas threat is real.

I don't think it will be frigid anywhere...but yea, below average from like DC southward.

Yea, I don't expect a particularly cold month in the mean.

I honestly couldn't care any less about this one if I tried....completely disengaged and biding my time until the first system of relevance.

Name one person who didn't expect this? Lol This place is mind numbing.

Yes.

It like crying about a lame hurricane season on June 8th.

Wasting what? Early to mid December climo blows big ones in most of SNE....always has.

I'll be on the edge if we make it past NY without an imminent threat. I'm good right now.

All it would take if for the PV love to be a bit father north, or non existent.

Just two months until warm car tushies.

I couldn't care less....keep your back side reach around from this thing.

I'd take weekly talk any day. I wish this system would evaporate....all those SE winds are going to be strong enough to do is sweep my neighbor's leaves into my immaculate yard.

It will, but climo or slightly above works in January.

You know its a classic el Nino December when you log on and read two pages of wind related dialogue. Can't wait for Tuesday....

Right...which is why December 2015 was so much warmer....same page. I also expect a similar system to the January blizzard, though hopefully about 100mi further north

This is why I think January-February may play out like a somewhat milder version of 2003, where as the coast of SNE struggled in January and then cleaned up when joining the party in February.

Oh, okay. I agree with you. The warmer west PAC absolutely plays into RONI and the MEI.

I am with you on the cold being mainly mid Atlantic and south....I think any true arctic air holds off until February, once the SSW manifests. January will probably be near normal to slightly above in the NE...just cold enough to snow.

The pieces are saying the same thing. I haven't read your article, but the one that I presented, which involves RONI, simply specifies that this "rich get richer" and "warm get warmer" dynamic applies specifically to ENSO attributed warming RELATIVE to the mean background warming. You seem to be arguing more that its the background warming that is the driver. I hypothesize that that may be true when ENSO is not prominent, as was the case over the summer and into the early portion of the fall. This is why the forcing was displaced so far west when SST anomalies were biased well to the east during and shortly after the event's inception. Notice that said convective forcing has navigated slightly to the east since el Nino has taken over more...I know @snowman19 has pointed that out.

Yea, funny that after all of that bickering we essentially agreed. Just a neurotic display of our passion, which is why we focus and argue over the most subtle of details.

That was second....got going later in the day...had several inches and then some sleet to slot.

My best was 2017.....7" late Xmas eve/ early AM.

You had me at cold-anomaly-snow...