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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    There were some guys I was going toe-to-toe with all summer and fall that were hell bent on a mega el Nino....they have all capitulated at this point. I honestly think Webber and Roundy are the only two going down with the ship.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is true, but the ONI has also clearly run astray due to the immense warmth around the globe....this is why I think the moderate intensity implied by the RONI is the most reasonable compromise. Its not weak, but I wouldn't call it strong, either.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what I like about Cohen....he always admits when he is wrong and is very approachable...you DM that guy and he responds as soon as he sees it. Some these guys act so condescending and their shit stinks as badly as everyone else's.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is infallible, so I will knock him. Frankly, I think he has looked like a fool with how obstinate he has been this fall. Everyone is wrong at some point and he needs to just admit that he was off a bit and move on.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is like calling the Blizzard of '78 an analog every time it snows.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to mentioned 91-92 had Pinatubo effect.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    @griteaterLove your stuff, man...you have to be my #1 source for outlook graphics lol
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looked to me like most of the deeply negative NAO seasons were ascending shortly after solar min.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957 is great from an ENSO and solar standpoint, but I think it will be a little less blocky on average....the huge difference is the extra tropical Pacific....this is why I like 1965 better. 1957-1958 is the best solar analog, though....ascending damn near max.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be later.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I have....at very, very great length.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check out the three super el Nino events....++PDO. No coincidence...probably why 1972 was held in check, at least to a degree.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...to a point. However, the PDO can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with ENSO when they are not in sync. Its part of the overarching system that is keeping this event in check.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I Could see January going either way.....I also don't think December will be a disaster, but not great.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely hybrid/basin-wide, and those have a high degree of variance. Its actually one of the better EMI analogs, but it was much better coupled and evolved far differently in the polar domain than I expect this year to...due to differences with respect to volcanic eruptions, solar cycle and degree of el Nino expression.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I mentioned a cool down near the end of the month in the Outlook, but it should be transient. "Before entering phase two with a potential slight cool down to close out the month".
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    JMA lends confidence to the consensus IMO...its like having the ensemble mean pointing in a favorable direction when the OP is a bit more precarious.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a VOLATILE PNA that biases slightly + and a volatile polar domain that biases slightly negative....not wall-to-wall arctic. But I think all of this volatility will ensure that winter is not boring. You want teleconnections in flux to get big storms....not a -3SD PV queefing on your face all season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with you about being skeptical on how good the Pacific looks on the JMA.....I don't expect that. But I do buy the seasonal consensus. Its not blind adherence....these models are meant to be used as GUIDANCE and I have done days and days of research that has validated what they are showing. Maybe they and I am wrong again....I do not think that is the case, but if it is, I will learn from it.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    We are obviously in a cool Pacific paradigm that mutes the influence of warm ENSO events....I'm not sure why you expect the same result when a "strong" one is partially negated as when a marginal one is entirely negated.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can live without having my pipes frozen.....29 and S+ works for me.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That el Nino was a virtual no-show.....I think if anything, this one is also overestimated, which would work to our advantage. It isn't apples to apples....you can't just roll the same situation forward and expect the same result. I honestly think some of you guys have like warm winter PTSD.
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