40/70 Benchmark

That season was actually my top analog last year, so I was obviously expecting more snow haha

Well, higher heights over the poles means a weaker PV.....but the catch is that what cold there is will be more readily available to the mid latitudes. However, given the depth of the trough in the west, the vast majority funneled out there.

To me, its clear 2023 had a slightly deeper RNA trough. Also, some of the snowfall is just simple variance due to the chaos of the atmosphere. We def. had some bad synoptic breaks last season independent of global warming.

Well, that is a big leap that will certainly warrant much more time to confidently discern. We have yet to see one of those theories persevere, whether it be the warm blob in the north Pacific, or changes in the arctic....time will tell.

I was about to analyze the polar domain, but you saved me the trouble. Again, not arguing identical patterns would be warmer now, nor that those would have some impact on the H5 pattern, but that was not the primary issue last year. Did it cost us a few to perhaps several inches in a season with a real dearth of well-timed polar airmasses in the source region of se Canada? Probably.

Precisely.

Well, you will definitely reach that threshold the lower in latitude and elevation a given locale is.

There are also some instances when the huge positive anomaly over the gulf stream benefits us...for instance, perhaps it augments cyclogensis a bit more than it would have in 1955 and accordingly, heights crash just a bit more. There will eventually be a tipping point, but we aren't there yet. as evidenced by the past 20 years of snowfall along the east coast. Like volcanic eruptions and SSW, the impact of GW is too simplified because we don't fully comprehend it and are still learning as we go.

The temperature of the Gulf stream is the least of my concerns when a PV lobe phases over Saskatchewan, as the Sierra is building a 50 foot snowpack.

Last year was extreme. It would have been extreme in 256BC and it will be extreme in 2136. That said, are marginal situations becoming more perilous due to GW? Yes, of course.

Exactly. GW is a very polarizing issue....many folks just can't distinguish between someone how feels as though there is rampant overattributing, like myself, from someone who is denying that it exists. It is possible to acknowledge the reality of GW while feeling that it becomes a convenient excuse for everything and anything...whether it be consciously, or unconsciously.

I understand the height changes...I don't need a graph to illustrate that. But a near record cold phase of the Pacific was never good news for eastern winter enthusiasts.

I still say even back in the 50's you would have run the risk of that PV lobe in December phasing west with an RNA that fierce.

Fairly certain that Lee did not end up undergoing RI again, nor will it landfall in the US as a Hurricane, so this is further evidence that the BS about me having some sort of agenda last weekend was a complete fabrication. No changes to my thoughts from last week (Sep 7). Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US | Eastern Mass Weather Happy tracking.

I feel like my thoughts from last week were essentially on target....no changes. SEP 7 Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US Hurricane Lee Minimal Threat to US High Surf Primary Impact Currently Hurricane Lee is a minimal category 1 hurricane over the central Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 80MPH However, guidance continues to emphatically suggest that the system will soon undergo rapid intensification into at least a category 4 storm. Thus the most important consideration is whether or not this system is likely to have a major impact on the US and the answer is no. Future Path & Intensity of Lee Spell Minimal Threat to US While there is still a great deal of uncertainty among guidance concerning the precise track of Lee over the next several days, one aspect that guidance is essentially in unanimous agreement on is that the system will begin to recurve to the north by approximately 70 degrees longitude, as a weakness develops the ridge downstream from the hurricane. This is a crucial portion of the forecast because climatology can often be used as a guide when computer models are at the periphery of their more skilled range, which is the case here. In this case, it is evident that hurricanes that go onto greatly impact the NE US at least approach about 75 degrees on longitude before veering towards the north. But clearly guidance is in strong agreement that that will not be the case with Lee. Although agreement is strong, there was one lone voice of dissent amongst the European ensemble suite that would pose a particularly dire threat to the state of Florida. But this scenario is an extreme outlier considering that 51/52 European members turn Lee to the north and every one of the GFS ensemble members do. Thus confidence in the above scenario is well above average relative to the extended lead time and thus a major impact to the NE can essentially be ruled out since the hurricane will begin its recurve so far to the east. But essentially is not synonymous with entirely. Like that lone voice of dissent among the European cluster that loomed ominously for Florida, there are two outlier GFS ensemble members that draw Lee into the trough and track the system over Cape Cod on approximately September 18. Although this is an exceedingly unlikely scenario, which is illustrated by climatology, it is a theoretically plausible scenario. But Lee would first have to traverse waters that have been significantly cooled due to the upwelling caused by Hurricane Frederick and Hurricane Idalia, thus whether or not Lee would impact the Cape as a hurricane is very dubious. In fact it is more likely than not that it would have been downgraded to a tropical storm by this point, which coupled with the asymmetrical wind distribution that is characteristic of tropical storms interacting with mid latitude systems, would mean sensible impact commensurate with a typical winter nor 'easter rather than a major hurricane strike. Remain vigilant, but unalarmed and any updates will be issued later this week if warranted-

Yea...I knew there would be a deeply negative PDO, but I still ultimately underestimated it.

No one is arguing that it isn't very different at the surface.

Right....and the RONI. Its been noted for months..this is why this event will not behave as a traditional canonical el nino, regardless of peak ONI.

All I am saying is that I have yet to see any strong evidence to favor a potent PV...are there arguments in favor? Sure....and valid ones at that. There are also arguments against.

I'm not sure what new info is supposed to be gleaned from this...I don't need experts to tell me that there is excess WV in the NHEM from the volcano...no one has debated that point. I'm not trying to be a jerk, so please don't take it as such. People can argue whether or not it will have an impact this winter until they are blue in the face, but no one is going to change the other's mind. I don't think it will matter in this case, as evidenced by last March. Doesn't necessarily we have huge blocking all season, but I don't expect an overbearing PV. I still feel like people are generalizing the impact of volcanic eruptions when it's more nuanced and varied than people think...akin to people's perception of SSW ramifications. So many people assume they all result in cold in snow in their BY and that is simply not the case.

Flemish Cap

Very good point. It makes sense that it has been feast or famine to the south of SNE, where averages are less. In this area, all we have had are median snowfalls, save for last year lol

Glad they caught it. My bro in lawn got melanoma on his forehead a few years ago....just barely caught it in time.

I love that as much as snow.

Well, feel free to borrow some precip, but I want it back by mid December.