40/70 Benchmark

Yes, fair post. We will have to see.

Search Twitter for a few hours and you can find a new paper supporting whatever you want.

About what I have.

Just some light showers here. 58.1 off of a low of 47.1

You won't have any issue there.

If it were snow. Obviously I don't care about rain.

Thank God it's not winter. We'd be losing our minds.

Yea, December looks toasty to me.

Well, my apologies if this wasn't directed specifically at me, but that is how I interpreted it. It doesn't matter...moving on.

I wasn't implying that you have a political agenda....I was just making the comparison to politics because GW is also a very heated, polarizing topic.

@bluewaveYou make very worthwhile contributions, no doubt....climate change is synonymous with politics in that it is very polarizing and contentious, so its fine to disagree. But I would suggest actually putting out a formal seasonal product at some point because I suspect that if you do, you will gain some perspective and understand why the snide remark about my bias is really uncalled for within the context of that exchange. Not only is it ALOT OF WORK....and sacrifice by family given the time that goes into it, but its a very illuminating experience to open oneself up to much critique and judgement and not sure you fully appreciate that...especially when I am equally meticulous about reporting results and past verification/bias. But its necessary to develop the insight needed to precipitate change when needed to alleviate said bias to the extent to which it is emotionally driven.

I've added in some commentary about seasonal guidance....looks like aside from NCEP, they all agree on some blocking, but there are two PAC camps. EURO and JMA is more of a +PNA and full-frontal nudity, while the rest are more RNA and subdued because of it.

I think pinning tracks of individual storms on GW is where you are going to lose some people. I'm just going to agree to disagree and leave it at that.

Yea, I obviously know GW is real and therefore it must be influencing the patterns, but my issue is that he is also making some large assumptions moving forward.

And I didn't think this regime would last forever because GW, either....so it has nothing to do with a bias. When it happens again...because it will, albeit warmer all around, I will say the same thing.

I used pejorative terms because I don't see what my forecasting bias had to do with my belief that we will still have variations. Just seemed like you taking a jab. And as far as my emotions affecting my forecasts...I think that was the case years ago. But not today. I correctly forecasted some decent blocking last year, but it was negated by pretty unique circumstances out west. The only thing I love more than winter is jamming a correct forecast down the throat of my detractors en route to my own personal enrichment, so trust me....what I want most is to get it right.

Wonderfully stated and this is all I am arguing. It seems to me that @bluewave is arguing that the variability is going away, as least in terms of the pattern. I don't see that, but even it were to happen, it would take a long time to definitively reach that conclusion.

AGAIN.....no one is debating global warming. What I am debating is the notion that this current global regime that favors warmer NE RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE NATION is going to become fixed in place permanently. I am not debating the warming in an absolute sense. BTW, I was also skeptical of the "warm blob" becoming a permanent fixture, and that favored a colder east.

Right......this is why I am about as transparent as humanly possible. How does me asserting that cyclical variations have always taken place explain my bias? Sounds like a deflection like tactic born of an infantile temper tantrum. But I know you aren't like that....must be global warming? And let me know again when you are going to take the time to author an outlook and then spend an equal amount of time reporting on your own biases....and you probably won't, so I guess we can attribute that to global warming-

I call bullshit on this. I know you are one of those people who attributes every fart to global warming, but if you look at a composite of the previous several winters, from like 2008-2014, we were one of the colder regions...and back then GW had supposedly led to the N PAC warm blob. No one will ever win against an argument like this because its self-sustaining, circular logic. Each change is permanent and due to GW...until it changes, then the change is due to GW and the new state is permanent. Rinse and repeat.....silly. I do buy the idea that GW is contributing to and protracting these extreme patterns, but cyclical changes have always existed.

Funny, I came to that same conclusion yesterday using a totally different method....comprising a composite of best summer precip and temp matches.

I feel like GW causes us to get stuck in more extreme patterns for longer durations of time....no research, just my anecdotal ob....this can sometimes lead to some extreme cold of duration, like '13-'14 and '14-15'. But more often than not, it means warmth, obviously....so maybe in that sense, the strong of warm NE winters relative to the rest of the nation IS due to GW to some degree, but that isn't permanent.

Congrats on the title next week.