40/70 Benchmark

I honestly am not not a fan of Kraft...I will give him credit for Belicheck, but otherwise I think he is cheap and more concerned with public image than winning. Having Brady for 20 years masked how much he sucks as an owner and now we are seeing it. Bill is gone and they still don't spend, so the idiotic notion that Bill was deciding how much they spend is put to bed. He massages his prostate to all of this "cap space", which is fake, anyway, at Orchids of Asia and does nothing with it. Make no mistake about it....cap is only an illusion for owners to rationalize being cheap....there are so many ways around that....owners that want to spend just keep restructuring deals to concvery money into a signing bonus.

I don't agree. I think they have botched this transition tremendously. It was clear that they didn't have a plan post Brady and they continued to draft poorly and refuse to spend on players or coaches. Obviously that level of success had to end, but they didn't need to become the laughing stock of the league to the point where the Jaguars are mocking them.

Yea, that was a hair below normal snowfall here. I would take that and run this year. Funny, a decade ago I would cringe at that season.

I think they have something...just need to avoid f&&king it up, which may be tough because they have been exposed as one of those organizations now that B & B are gone.

That year is a great example of how to still get it done in NE in an ostensibly brutal pattern....huge PV that is elongated to the SE.

I think the chance of Maye breaking out in the 2nd half and propelling the Pats into the PS is higher.

I think that is a decent analog.

I don't think either will be...no one expects much out of SNE severe seasons or the 2024 Pats.

I have noticed that trend in some of the seasonal guidance for the winter, too....just FYI at this point and something to watch.

We could have a coolish month...my guess would be December or maybe even March.

I think its exceedingingly likely to be a mild winter....just a matter of how active it is and whether or not its prohibitively warm.

Marked safe from .05" of rain yesterday in Methuen. More violent weather to come tomorrow.

I am not opposed to late season blocking, a la 2023.

1966-1967 was an interesting cool ENSO year in that snowfall behaved more like an El Nino locally....very, very backloaded with a big Feb-March. December has seasonable snowfall and January had hardly anything...one of the worst on record. The Farmer's Alamanac sounds alot like raindance described with the warmer and very active storm track description.

What do you think of the CANSIP? Probably would need a mismatich month to score this...

Yea, I mentioned that your index calculating was trending upward. Obviously its going to average positive for the winter....just a matter of whether or not we still a negative month.

That looks like the CANSIPS. I would take that and run.

I think you need to wait about another month to know.

I think you underestimate how much a single storm can raise the value.

You probably aren't getting 140" again, either way lol

Man, this would feel like 1976-1977 after the past 10 years.

Not what I said....."flipping" implies that the +AMO period has peaked and is beginning to reverse. Once you have your mind made up, I think it distorts your interpretation of what people are trying to say. Its something everyone needs to be mindful of.

I def. see some pathways to redemption for the NE...admittedly a taller task for the Mid Atl, unless they hit the synoptic powerball with a big dog.

No one in their right mind is going to argue that it looks good on paper.....I'm just saying to keep an open mind. Raindance was also speculating that the AMO maybe flipping, so be careful about assuming that "++AMO"..... One you make up your mind, focus on ways things can "go wrong"....