40/70 Benchmark

Mild, Wind Swept Weekend Rains Represent Crucial Point of Inflection for Winter 2023-2024 Some Snow Possible Tuesday & Larger Threat Looms in Extended Range Fast on the heels of last night's heavy rains, the second in a sequence of dual heavy rain events looks to extinguish the balance of any existing snowpack across the northern portion of the region on Saturday. In a virtual reenactment of Tuesday evening, yet another short wave breaks off from the consistent energy feed out west and amplifies abruptly in the midwest, which results in yet another track through the Great Lakes. It is clear that any resistance to such a track form the developing NAO block will be insufficient to lead to a more wintry outcome as a result of the mild airmass left in the wake of last night's storm system. This may understandably lead the general public to the ill-fated conclusion that winter 2023-2024 will be relatively uneventful in terms of winter weather, much like last season, given the dearth of snowfall near the coast by the midpoint of the season. However, ironically enough, it is this mild weekend rainstorm that will play an instrument role in the inflection point at which this season diverges from the rather meek winter of 2022-2023. Seeds of Changes to be Planted this Weekend It was opined last fall that the first half of January would be relatively mild with snowfall focused over the interior. Thus far that has proven accurate given the mean temperature anomaly through the first week to ten days: And the first significant snowfall of the season last weekend. However, while the high latitude block that is currently developing is not going to keep this weekend's system from passing inland, it will act to ensure an avenue for the delivery of arctic air in the wake of the storm. And that is precisely what this storm will do, as it meanders about Canada and retrogrades underneath the Greenland block as a functional polar vortex lobe. And insodoing it will also force the potential system slated to arrive approximately late on Tuesday further to the south, ensuring primarily wintry precipitation and greatly increasing the risk for significant snowfall across the region and closer to the coast. And thereafter the plot thickens beyond mid month, as per the progression conveyed in the Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook that was issued this past fall. "This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5". Indeed, high end potential looms as the NAO block begins to relax. And the polar vortex lobe translates east before lifting north into a "50/50 low" position, which will act to hold the cold air that it helped to deliver in the wake of this weekend's system. This is represents a rather robust signal, which is rooted in teleconnector convergence via mass flux throughout the hemisphere in both the Atlantic/Arctic: And the Pacific/Arctic: In what is a classic Archambault signal for a major east coast precipitation event. Keep all eyes on the blog for developments through the weekend and into next week as what ostensibly appears to be mild rain storm plays a crucial role in altering what has been a benign temperament of winter 2024. Indeed, changes appear to be afoot.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/mild-wind-swept-rains-this-weekend.html

I have an early write up done, but having problems uploading images, so will wait til home.

We all have trauma lol

That's my take, too....no one needs January 2004.

January 2011 is just behind those 2 years for me.

Makes perfect sense with warm ENSO climo.

Sell the GEPS.

Difference is that we have an established Aleutian low by that point, which renders that Canadian ridging more spasmodic, as opposed to having the vortex in AK anchoring said ridging in place.

Looks fleeting to me.

The irony is that cutter Saturday evolves into the PV lobe that gets things cooking....remember what I said yesterday about cutters...

He even weenied your laugh What a ruthless, emoji wielding assassin.

What a torture chamber....but you can't help but look lol

Wait a minute....it snowed in Albuquerque this week. Call it all off. Can't happen.

There it is...old man winter with the bushy afro and thick late 70s stache....smoking a cigar by the end of the run lol

I'll have that reenactment doll all ready for you to show me what old man winter did to you and where he touched you.

Tell me all of your dirty little secrets in about 30 minutes....

Only thing missing is you putting it all into motion for us, like a raunchy late 1970's weather porno....

I could live that- Twist my arm.....I dare you...

I don't think that mild break will be long-lived, as the PNA is building with another PV lobe replacing the old one in N Quebec.

The period to watch is as that PV is lifting out, leading into the mild break....other than that, we look to Feb.

I think our big doggie looms shortly thereafter, beyond the apex of the blocking...

That was a quick relapse.

Probably the most reasonable posts that I have ever seen you make. Copy-paste and frame it. lol

GFS is more keyed in on my 1/22-/23 period. I think that is legit, time range not withstanding.